Pirates Spring Training Predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates play their first Grapefruit League game on Saturday afternoon when they take on the Baltimore Orioles in Sarasota.

Opening Day, meanwhile, is just over a month away. The Pirates open up the regular season in Miami against the Marlins on March 27.

But between now and then, much is to be settled before the Pirates finalize their initial 26-man roster, and there are plenty of storylines to follow this spring.

Here are four predictions on what will take place this spring training and beyond.

Bubba Chandler Shines But Starts at Indianapolis

One of the most intriguing players to watch this spring will be Chandler. The 22-year-old is the consensus top prospect in the organization and is considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

Chandler spent most of last season with Double-A Altoona and made seven impressive starts with Triple-A Indianapolis at the end of the year. We will very likely see the right-hander on the mound in Pittsburgh at some point in 2025, but it won’t come at the very beginning of the year.

I’m expecting Chandler to have a strong spring. Maybe not quite to the level of Jared Jones, who surprisingly made the Pirates’ Opening Day roster as a rookie after a stellar showing in the Grapefruit League, but a good showing nonetheless.

Chandler has an impressive pitch arsenal, and as a pitcher with experience at the highest minor-league level, should be able to hold his own against big-league batters.

However, the Pirates have enough starting pitchers to fill out a five-man rotation to start the season, especially after agreeing to a deal with free agent Andrew Heaney.

So while Chandler will offer a glimpse of what’s to come, his major-league debut will have to wait… for now.

Oneil Cruz Leads Grapefruit League in Homers; Foreshadows Breakout Year

Last year, Cruz was tied with Kyle Stowers for the most home runs in spring training with seven. This year, Cruz will be in sole possession of the Grapefruit League lead.

Cruz hits the ball harder than just about anyone in baseball. The winds that swirl over LECOM Park in Bradenton will help his cause.

But more importantly, Cruz’s strong spring will translate to a breakout season for the talented 26-year-old.

Cruz had a fine season in 2024 when he hit .259/.324/.449 and joined the 20/20 club with 21 home runs and 22 steals. But there’s room for improvement. This year, Cruz takes a step forward and emerges as the top hitter on the Pirates.

A 30/30 season and an All-Star appearance are both on the table.

David Bednar Cements Himself as Closer

Bednar’s struggles in 2024 were perhaps the most surprising part of a disappointing season for the Pirates.

The two-time All-Star was eventually taken out of the closer role and finished with a 5.77 ERA while blowing seven of his 30 save opportunities.

In his three years with the Pirates from 2021-23, Bednar established himself as one of the top relief pitchers in baseball and carried a 2.25 ERA with 61 saves. He was tied for the National League lead with 39 saves in 2023.

This spring, Bednar won’t be perfect, but he’ll do enough to erase any doubt over whether or not he should be the Pirates’ closer this season. But a strong spring will have to carry over to the regular season, or else the Pirates will once again be in big trouble.

First Base Remains a Question Mark

It looks very unlikely that Spencer Horwitz will be ready for Opening Day after undergoing left wrist surgery.

There are a handful of options who could fill in for the newly-acquired Horwitz to start the season. Jared Triolo might be the favorite. Billy Cook is another option and there are several others in the mix.

But each player under consideration has question marks and I don’t foresee anyone doing enough to separate from the rest of the pack and become the obvious choice to start the season.

So, the Pirates will have to mix and match before Horwitz returns from an inevitable stint on the injured list and hope for the best. Much like they’ve done at the position for far too long.