Demilio: Five Pirates Predictions for 2025

Opening Day is quickly approaching. The Pittsburgh Pirates will kick off their regular season slate on Thursday against the Marlins in Miami at 4:10 p.m. ET.

At the end of Grapefruit League play, the Pirates have a 14-15 record and are right in the middle of the pack of the standings.

But the start of the regular season is a clean slate. The Pirates are hoping to erase six-straight losing seasons and push for their first playoff appearance in a decade. Can they get there? Here are my five predictions for the Pirates in 2025.

Oneil Cruz Goes 30/30

There aren’t many players with more talent or more tools than Oneil Cruz. He can hit the ball as hard and as far as anyone in the league. He’s also one of the fastest players in the game and possesses one of the strongest arms.

This will be Cruz’s first full season as a center fielder after shifting from shortstop late last season. While I think he’ll be able to hold his own out there, my first prediction deals with his offense.

I’m predicting Cruz to hit 30-plus home runs and steal 30-plus bases, something he has previously said is a goal of his.

In his first season after returning from a gruesome ankle injury, Cruz joined the 20/20 club with 21 home runs and 22 stolen bases. But I think there’s more in store for the 26-year-old this season.

If Cruz did end up reaching the exclusive club, he would be the second player to ever do it in a Pirates’ uniform. The other is Barry Bonds, who did so in 1990 and 1992, the two years he won National League MVP in Pittsburgh.

Ke’Bryan Hayes Reclaims Gold Glove

2024 proved to be a lost season of Ke’Bryan Hayes. The Pirates’ third baseman battled a lingering back issue which limited him to 96 games played. He scuffled at the plate and wasn’t quite the defensive wizard he had previously been.

I’m predicting a bounce-back season for Hayes in 2025. While I don’t think he’ll be a true difference-maker at the plate, I think he’ll post respectable enough numbers.

But the true bounce-back will come in the field. Not only do I think Hayes will play enough games to qualify, but I think he’ll win his second-career Gold Glove after the season concludes.

Hayes was named the National League Gold Glove winner at the hot corner in 2023, putting an end to Nolan Arenado’s streak of 11-straight to begin his career. Last year, the honor went to the San Francisco Giants’ Matt Chapman.

The Carmen Mlodzinski Experiment Doesn’t Work, But…

I wrote on Monday about the Pirates’ questionable decision to use Carmen Mlodzinski as a starting pitcher for the first time in the big leagues.

I don’t see it working out for Mlodzinski as a starting pitcher. The Pirates transitioned him to the bullpen in the minor leagues after they concluded it wasn’t working as a starting pitcher. But now he’s expected to resume starting at the game’s highest level? I don’t buy it.

Ultimately, I think the right-hander winds up back in the bullpen and continues to pitch well there.

Fortunately for the Pirates, they have several top prospects waiting to be called upon to step in. Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington and Braxton Ashcraft are all projected to make their debuts at some point in 2025. The first of which could be Ashcraft, since he’s already on the 40-man roster. The other two offer more potential as a starting pitcher in my opinion, however.

Offense Improves But Still Underwhelms

The Pirates will have a new voice at hitting coach this season as Matt Hague replaces the ousted Andy Haines.

Bryan Reynolds will continue to provide a steady force in the lineup. Based off of my first point in these predictions, I’m feeling a big season from Cruz, too. I also think there are a couple of breakout candidates on the roster in Nick Gonzales and Endy Rodríguez. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jack Suwisnki rebounded either.

For these reasons, I think the Pirates’ offense will show real improvement, but not enough to be considered a top-half offense in baseball. Last season, the Pirates finished near the bottom among all 30 teams in most statistical categories.

That may not be the case this year as I think the Pirates show some level of improvement, but not enough to get them over the hump… which leads me to my final point.

79-83, Fourth-Place Finish, Big Changes in Offseason

Yes, I think the Pirates will be better this season. A full season of Paul Skenes, a somewhat improved offense, etc. But I don’t think it will be enough to get them over the hump.

The starting rotation is a question mark with the status of Jared Jones TBD. Having to rely on Mlodzinski or a rookie is a tall ask. The Pirates might find themselves holding their breath when Bailey Falter or Andrew Heaney is on the mound.

The bullpen is also coming off of a disappointing season without a whole lot done to try and improve it. If David Bednar can bounce back, that will provide a huge boost. But if he struggles again… yikes.

But when all said and done, I’m expecting a team flirting with .500 for much of the year but without a serious threat to make the playoffs.

If that’s the case, owner Bob Nutting will have a lot of big changes to ponder once the season ends.

On Monday, Griffin Floyd wrote about his five predictions for 2025. It can be found here.