Floyd: Five Pirates Predictions for 2025

With Opening Day less than a week away — the Pirates 2025 season will begin in Miami at 4:10 p.m. on Thursday, March 27 — it’s time to make predictions for how their year will end up.

Fresh off consecutive 76-86 finishes, the Pirates and their fans might hope for improved results in pitching phenomenon Paul Skenes’ first full season in the big leagues, but after another offseason of meager spending, it might not end up that way.

On that happy note, here are five predictions for how Pittsburgh’s 2025 season pans out.

Bubba Chandler Makes Debut in July

After climbing up to Triple-A during his age-21 season last year and posting a 1.83 ERA across seven starts in Indianapolis to end the year, Bubba Chandler garnered plenty of buzz as the type of player who could mirror Jared Jones’ 2024 season, making the big league club out of spring training.

Although he tossed two shutout innings during the annual spring breakout game, camp didn’t proceed as the Pirates (and especially their fans) might’ve hoped. Chandler struggled to a 19.29 ERA across 2.1 innings (three appearances) out of the bullpen, sent down to minor league camp in early March. Despite the setback, fans won’t need to wait long to see Chandler don the black and gold. A combination of pitching injuries, poor performance and Chandler’s own success will bring him to Pittsburgh soon after the All-Star game: perhaps the six game homestand beginning July 27 against the Mets.

Oneil Cruz an Outfield All-Star

In another bout of good news, Oneil Cruz will finally begin to recognize his potential with an All-Star bid this season. He finished 2024 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases despite still dealing with the aftershocks of the brutal ankle injury he suffered in April 2023. 

Another year removed from that injury and without the pressure of having to serve as the keystone of the Pirates’ defense at shortstop, Cruz will join the 30-30 club and earn his first invitation to the Midsummer Classic in the process.

Paul Skenes Wins Cy Young

Skenes didn’t make his big league debut until six weeks into the 2024 season and still managed to finish in third place in the National League Cy Young award voting. After posting a 1.96 ERA with 170 strikeouts across 133 innings (23 starts) as a rookie, Skenes won’t suffer through anything remotely approaching a sophomore slump. 

Instead, he’ll double down on his dominance, earning the franchise’s first Cy Young award since Doug Drebek (1990)… and bringing discord amongst Pirates fans to a fever pitch as he exhausts another year of team control in a lost season.

Pirates Finish Fifth

Despite a strong campaign from Cruz, Pittsburgh won’t be able to snap their decade-long streak without a postseason appearance. Instead, they’ll finish fifth as turmoil in the starting rotation — even the arrival of highly-touted prospects won’t save the day — and a snooze-worthy offense becomes too much for even their legitimate star players to balance out. The Pirates finished fifth in 2024 and haven’t done much of anything to improve this year’s roster.

Naturally, they’ll be in a race to the bottom again this season. Among teams in the NL Central, only the Cardinals have a case for a worse offseason than the Pirates.

Fan Fury Reaches Fever Pitch

The clock is already ticking on Paul Skenes’ rookie contract, angst starting to creep in among fans at the prospect of a truly generational talent slipping away. Although rookie deals last for six years, Skenes will be eligible for contract arbitration ahead of the 2027 season… and could quickly land out of the Pirates’ price range.

Understandably, that could cause a level of outrage unlike anything the city of Pittsburgh has seen in the more than three decades since the Pirates began to spiral. That’s not to say that owner Bob Nutting will decide to sell the team — if he hasn’t by this point, who knows what it will take for him to reach his breaking point — but it will be a situation to monitor closely.