Pirates Opening Day Roster Predictions 2.0 – A Change on Griffin for Now
Two weeks from today, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be at Citi Field to face the New York Mets on Opening Day.
Spring training may be winding down but the Pirates still have several pressing roster decisions to make before heading north for the start of the season. The largest looming decision, of course, will be whether or not top prospect Konnor Griffin starts at shortstop as a 19-year-old.
I took a stab at projecting what the initial roster would look like a couple weeks ago but have made several changes since then.
Without further ado, here’s how I have the initial 26-man roster shaping up.
Catchers: Joey Bart, Henry Davis
Endy Rodríguez has been far and away the performer among the four catchers on the 40-man roster this spring but I still have Bart and Davis as the catching tandem for the start of the season.
Neither player has looked good this spring — Davis is hitless in 15 at-bats while Bart is just 2 for 21 with nine strikeouts. But Davis has established himself as a strong defensive catcher and a personal favorite of Paul Skenes while Bart’s veteran status boosts him to a roster spot.
I’ve been encouraged with how Rodríguez has looked this spring with a .975 OPS and a pair of home runs in seven games. But he and Rafael Flores are probably best served starting the year in Indianapolis. But with increased pressure to win, the Pirates might not wait around long enough to make a change.
Infielders: Nick Gonzales, Spencer Horwitz, Brandon Lowe, Jared Triolo, Nick Yorke
OK, let’s address the elephant in the room. I no longer have Griffin making the roster. But to be perfectly honest, I’ve been wrestling with the decision and am admittedly torn and I expect that will be the case all the way to the end. What would I do? I’d probably have Griffin start the year with the Pirates. But what they decide is different from what I think.
Griffin has done a lot of good things this spring and has been making some quality contact and has three homers but there are several drawbacks — no walks, sub-.200 batting average as the most notable. I realize batting average isn’t a strong metric to use anymore but .192 batting average can’t be ignore just like it couldn’t be if he was hitting .500.
Even without batting average, he is still a teenager and Gonzales has looked good this spring. If he continues to swing a hot bat during the rest of Grapefruit League action, it would be easier for the Pirates to rationalize starting Griffin in Indianapolis. But Gonzales would be on a short leash and it wouldn’t be long until we saw Griffin regardless.
For those bummed by my current decision, the good news is there is still plenty of time left and I could change my mind again — and likely will, several times.
But for now, my starting infield from right to left is Horwitz-Lowe-Gonzales-Triolo with Yorke in a utility role.
Outfield: Oneil Cruz, Jhostynxon García, Jake Mangum, Ryan O’Hearn, Bryan Reynolds
The biggest change among the outfield group is that García takes the place of Griffin on the roster. The 23-year-old has looked great this spring, which is another reason I felt a little bit more comfortable leaving Griffin off. García has 12 hits in 24 at-bats with one double, one home run, three RBI, three steals and four walks against four strikeouts.
My one concern is I’d like to see García get everyday at-bats which could be tough to do in Pittsburgh. But his performance this spring has been impossible to ignore.
I’m concerned about the starting outfield defense with Cruz in center flanked on one side by Reynolds and on the other by O’Hearn. Mangum’s defensive abilities will be very important to have on the roster.
Designated Hitter: Marcell Ozuna
No change here, obviously. Ozuna is having a pretty solid spring — 6 for 19 with a pair of doubles.
Starting Pitchers: Braxton Ashcraft, Hunter Barco, Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes
No player competing for the fifth spot in the rotation has separated himself from the rest of the pack. Despite my strong belief that he should remain in the bullpen, I was half tempted to put Carmen Mlodzinski in the final spot. I didn’t, for now, but we still have a ways to go.
I went with Barco for a couple of reasons. He’s looked fine this spring though there have been some command issues. The fact that he’s left-handed in an otherwise righty-heavy group was at least a factor, though I think starting pitching handedness is overrated as long as there’s a mix in the bullpen.
Veterans José Urquidy and Mike Clevinger are also fighting for that last spot and will have a couple more auditions before all said and done.
Despite a question mark at the fifth spot, the rotation should be pretty good again.
Bullpen: Justin Lawrence, Isaac Mattson, Carmen Mlodzinski, Mason Montgomery, Yohan Ramírez, Dennis Santana, Gregory Soto, José Urquidy
The only change to the bullpen is replacing the now-Cincinnati Red Kyle Nicolas with Urquidy. I feel five spots in the bullpen are solidified — Santana, Soto, Mattson, Lawrence and Mlodzinski (assuming he doesn’t make the rotation.)
The final three spots, to me, are between Urquidy, Montgomery, Ramírez, Evan Sisk and Cam Sanders. I went with Urquidy as someone who could provide length, Montgomery because of his electric arm and Ramírez since he’s looked pretty good this spring and could have an edge. Sisk looks worthy given his performance and just missed out for now and Sanders has been solid, too. There’s a good bit that could change here between now and my final projections.
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