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ZiPS Projections for 2025 Pirates; How Good Can They Be?

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Pittsburgh Pirates, Bryan Reynolds, ZiPS

While we wait for Pittsburgh to thaw out from the frigid temperatures that have taken over the area in recent days, the thought of baseball under the sun serves as a reminder of what lays ahead.



But until winter becomes spring and eventually summer, our imagination is as good as we’re gonna get to warmer weather.

Though the start of spring training is still a few weeks away, it’s never to early to start wondering what’s to come in the 2025 season for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

To help us all out, Dan Szymborski unveiled ZiPS projections for the Pirates this year, and there might be some hope for a team looking to climb out of mediocracy and into the postseason for the first time since 2015. Can they actually reach Buctober once again? Well, maybe, but probably not.

“ZiPS sees the Pirates as a .500 team,” writes Szymborski. “But in the very early team projections I’ve run, they just have less upside than the rest of the division.”

If the Pirates were to reach .500 in 2025, it would mark the first time since 2018 and just the fifth since clinching their last division title in 1992.

For the past two seasons, the Pirates have finished with an identical 76-86 record, good for fourth place in the division in 2023 and last place in 2024. Pittsburgh hasn’t finished in third place since going 78-83 in 2016.

Here’s what ZiPS has for individual performances.

Pirates Offense

ZiPS projects a new addition to lead the Pirates’ offense. Spencer Horwitz is projected for a 118 wRC+, which would give him the slight edge over Bryan Reynolds (115) and Oneil Cruz (114). Jack Suwinski (111), Nick Gonzales (106), Joshua Palacios (104) and Henry Davis (101) are the other Pirates projected to be better than league-average offensively.

Getting those types of results from Suwinski and Davis in particular would go a long ways in improving the Pirates’ lackluster offense from last year. Suwinski scuffled throughout his time in the big leagues in ’24 and was sent to the minors only to not return the rest of the year. Davis has yet to find his footing in the majors.

Projected Leaders

  • Batting average: Spencer Horwitz: .273
  • On-base percentage: Spencer Horwitz .366
  • Slugging percentage: Oneil Cruz: .458
  • Home runs: Oneil Cruz: 24
  • RBIs: Bryan Reynolds: 84
  • Stolen bases: Oneil Cruz: 20

Pirates Pitching

ZiPS projects the Pirates to have a strong pitching staff with 2024 Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes of course leading the way. Skenes is projected to have a 3.24 ERA in his second big-league season. Jared Jones (3.89) also has a sub-4.00 projection with Mitch Keller (4.02) barely on the other side.

In the bullpen, ZiPS projects a reasonable bounce-back from David Bednar with a 3.60 ERA. The newly-signed Caleb Ferguson is projected to be an anchor in the bullpen with a 3.29 ERA.

Overall, the pitching staff looks to be in pretty good shape, both starting pitching and the bullpen. There is understandably more faith in the starting staff, however.

Projected Leaders

  • Wins: Mitch Keller: 10
  • ERA: Paul Skenes: 3.24
  • Starts: Paul Skenes: 30
  • Strikeouts: Paul Skenes: 181
  • Appearances: David Bednar/Caleb Ferguson: 60

ZIPS FULL PROJECTIONS CAN BE FOUND HERE. 

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