Perrotto: What The Projection Systems Think About the 2023 Pirates (+)
The numbers crunchers have crunched their numbers and come to the same conclusion about the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Both Baseball Prospectus and its PECOTA projection system and Fangraphs and its ZiPS projection system expect the Pirates to finish with a 72-90 record this season. They also peg the Pirates to wind up in fourth place in the National League Central ahead of only the Cincinnati Reds.
That is a sign of potential progress for the Pirates if the statistically oriented websites’ projections are correct. The Pirates would show a 10-win improvement over last season’s 62-100 record and finish out of the division basement for the first time since 2018.
Baseball Prospectus expects the Pirates to finish 15 games behind the division-champion Milwaukee Brewers. Fangraphs calls for the St. Louis Cardinals to win the NL Central with the Pirates winding up 14 games back.
BP gives the Pirates a 2.4% chance of making the postseason for the first time since 2015 and a 0.1% chance of winning the World Series for the first time since 1979. FG rates the Pirates’ chances at 4.5% and 0.1%.
As far as individual projections, both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs expect outfielder Bryan Reynolds to be the Pittsburgh Pirates’ best player. The former has him finishing with 2.9 WARP and the latter with 3.8 WAR.
Baseball Prospectus projects Reynbolds to hit .260/.344/.435 with 19 home runs and 74 RBIs while FanGraphs has him at .272/.354/.466 with 23 homers and 68 RBIs.
The two projection systems have a split opinion about the Pirates’ top pitcher.
Baseball Prospectus expects JT Brubaker to have 1.2 WARP while posting an 8-11 record and a 3.81 ERA. Fangraphs projects Roansy Contreras to finish with 2.0 WAR while going 5-6 with a 4.05 ERA.
On the more traditional media side, USA TODAY predicts the Pirates will have a 64-98 record, tying the Reds for last place in the NL Central for the second straight season. The newspaper has the Cardinals winning the division with an 88-74 mark.
Baseball Digest predicts the Pittsburgh Pirates for a fourth-place finish in front of the Reds and the Cardinals as the division champions.
Lindy’s Sports season preview magazine is the most optimistic about the Pirates, tabbing them third in the division ahead of the Chicago Cubs and Reds and behind the Cardinals and Brewers.
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