Perrotto: Astros’ Tanking Blueprint Could Work for Pirates — Perhaps (+)
George Springer was a rookie, and the Houston Astros were getting close to finishing another desolate season.
I was filling in for a day as the Houston Astros’ beat writer for MLB.com in Cleveland. How did that happen? Let’s just say I was the pinch-hitter for the pinch-hitter for the pinch-hitter.
Anyhow, I was making small talk with the affable rookie center fielder in the clubhouse in the hours leading up to the game when I asked how he and his teammates handled all the losing. He smiled and gave an interesting answer.
“Because it’ll be all worth it when we win the World Series,” he said.
It was hard not to suppress a laugh, though I appreciated Springer’s enthusiasm. The Astros wound up with a 70-92 record that season, which came on the heels of losing 106 games in 2011, 107 games in 2012 and 111 games in 2013.
While the Astros had made some progress, hoisting the World Series trophy seemed like a pipedream for a franchise that had been to the Fall Classic only once and never won it all.
Yet three years later, the trashcan-banging Astros beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven games in the 2017 World Series. Springer was the MVP.
When the Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of this year’s World Series on Friday night at Minute Maid Park, it will mark their fourth appearance in the Fall Classic in six years.
The Astros are living proof that tanking can pay off. That should be heartening to Pirates fans who have watched their favorite team finish last in the National League Central each of the last four seasons and lose at least 100 games in both 2021 and 2022.
Like the Pirates have since Ben Cherington took over as general manager following the 2019, the Astros tore their major league roster down to the studs. Former Houston GM Jeff Luhnow traded his proven assets for young players and built a roster ensured of piling up enough losses to accumulate high picks in the amateur draft and a large amount of bonus pool money to sign international amateur free agents.
So, what lessons can the Pirates learn from the Astros’ rise from the bottom of the standings to October fixtures?
First and foremost is to hit on your first-round draft picks.
Springer was the Astros’ top pick in 2011 followed by shortstop Carlos Correa the next year and right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. in 2013. They also selected third baseman Alex Bregman and right fielder Kyle Tucker in 2015’s first round.
Springer and Correa were pivotal players on the ’17 championship teams. Bregman and Tucker are key parts of the Astros’ current lineup and McCullers has flashed dominant form since missing the first 4.5 months of this season with a strained forearm.
The Astros have also hit on players beyond the first round. Rookie Jeremy Pena, the MVP of the American League Championship Series, was selected in the third round in 2018 while rookie pitching sensation Hunter Brown was a fifth rounder in 2019 and center fielder Chas McCormick was a 21st-round find in 2017.
The Astros have also done well scouting amateur pitching in Latin America. Five pitchers likely to be on the postseason roster came through the Latin American program – Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Bryan Abreu from the Dominican Republic, Venezuelan Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy from Mexico.
It always helps to make a lopsided trade and that is what the Astros did in 2016 when they dealt reliever Josh Fields to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Yordan Alvarez, a slugging prospect at the rookie ball level.
Alvarez is now one of the most feared hitters in the major leagues. Fields last pitched in the big leagues in 2018.
The Astros haven’t been able to keep all their homegrown talent. Springer and Correa are the most notable players to leave as free agents.
However, what could be the difference between the Pirates and Astros is ownership’s ability – or desire — to retain at least some key players.
In recent years, the Astros have signed Altuve (seven years, $163.5 million), Alvarez (six year, $115 million), Bregman (five years, $100 million) and McCullers (five years, $85 million) to lucrative contract extensions.
The Pirates showed a willingness to commit to a homegrown player when they signed third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70-million extension in April.
Would they commit to signing multiple players to big-money contracts? That would be the separator and making all the losing worthwhile.
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