Opinion
Perrotto: Should Paul Skenes Win NL Rookie of the Year?
One of the few interesting storylines surrounding the Pittsburgh Pirates as the season begins its final week concerns Paul Skenes.
That should not be surprising. The 22-year-old right-hander has been the biggest bright spot in yet another losing season for the Pirates – their sixth in a row and 28th in the last 32 years.
Skenes was brilliant again Sunday in Cincinnati in his penultimate start of the season, a 2-0 victory over the Reds. He pitched five shutout innings and allowed two hits and no walks while striking out nine to improve his record to 11-3 and lower his ERA to 1.99 through 22 starts.
Skenes is just the second MLB pitcher since earned runs became a statistic in 1913 to have an ERA of less than 2.00 through 22 starts. The other was Steve Rogers from 1973-74 when he posted a 1.95 ERA for the Montreal Expos.
Skenes’ 167 strikeouts are the fifth-most by a pitcher through 22 career appearances since 1901 behind Hideo Nomo’s 194 for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1995, Kerry Wood’s 193 for the Chicago Cubs in 1998, Mark Prior’s 172 for the Cubs from 2002-03 and Dwight Gooden’s 171 for the New York Mets in 1984.
Furthermore, Skenes has allowed six hits or fewer in each of his starts. That is the fourth-longest stretch in MLB history after Shohei Ohtani’s 31 for the Los Angeles Angels from 2018-21, Bill Burbach’s 24 for the New York Yankees in 1969, Tony Cingrani’s 24 for the Reds from 2013-14 and Alek Manoah’s 22 for the Toronto Blue Jays from 2021-22.
So, that leads to the question of whether Skenes should win the National League Rookie of the Year award.
The oddsmakers had made Skenes the favorite for most of the summer before he was overtaken by San Diego Padres center Jackson Merrill last month. However, Skenes has been reinstalled as the top choice by most sportsbooks with odds of -145 at DraftKings, -150 at FanDuel and -160 at BetMGM.
A compelling case can be made for Merrill.
He is hitting .292/.326/.503 with 24 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 151 games for a team that’s magic number for reaching the postseason is one. Six of the homers have tied the game or put the Padres ahead in the eighth inning or later.
Furthermore, the 21-year-old Merrill was switched from shortstop to center field in spring training and made the opening-day roster despite ending last season at Double-A.
One of the most difficult aspects in the years when I voted for Rookie of the Year was weighing the contributions of a pitcher against those of a position player. Normally, I lean to the hitter because he makes more of a daily impact.
WAR is one way to look at players and Skenes holds a hefty 6.0-3.9 advantage over Merrill in Baseball-Reference’s version of the metric. However, Merrill leads Skenes 5.1-3.9 in FanGraph’s calculations.
Skenes insists he isn’t thinking of becoming just the second Pirates player to win NL Rookie of the Year. Jason Bay took the honor in 2004.
“Just got to keep playing, keep executing,” Skenes said recently.
Maybe he isn’t but many Pirates fans are thinking about it as Skenes gets ready to make his final start sometime during a three-game weekend series against the Yankees in New York to close the season.
I don’t have a vote. If I did, it would go to Skenes.
Merrill is having a fine rookie season, but Skenes is having a historic one.
