Demilio: Concern With Luis Ortiz Goes Beyond MLB Struggles (+)
After impressing with a power fastball to pair with a sharp slider, Luis Ortiz saw his prospect status skyrocket entering the 2023 season.
The right-hander was more good than bad in four starts in his first taste of the big leagues in 2022, Ortiz soared up the Pittsburgh Pirates’ top prospects list. He even appeared as the 74th-best prospect in baseball prior to the start of the season, according to Baseball America.
After a couple Pirates’ pitchers were sidelined with season-ending injuries, Ortiz was given another shot in Pittsburgh, though the story was much different this time around.
While Ortiz showed good things at times, his overall numbers were ugly. In 11 appearances (10 starts), Ortiz went 2-3 with a 4.86 ERA. His FIP, which takes out factors out of a pitchers control, was 6.19, indicating he’s been even worse than his surface-level numbers show.
In 53.2 innings, Ortiz only struck out 34 batters while issuing 26 free passes. He yielded 67 hits, 11 of which left the yard.
Perhaps the most concerning stat of any is the surprisingly-low strikeout totals. How could a pitcher with a power fastball and a strong slider not retire baters via strikeout at a high — or even average — clip?
Well, Ortiz has seen a sharp decline in his velocity across the board.
His fastball velocity has dropped drastically. Last year, he touched 100 mph fairly often with the pitch and averaged 98.5 mph with it. In 2023, he averaged only 96.1 mph. The velocity on his slider and changeup were both down roughly two-percent as well.
Interestingly enough, declines in velocity have also plagued fellow right-hander Roansy Contreras, who like Ortiz has had his struggles this year.
Ortiz’s changeup has been a work in progress for quite some time. While it was still a below-average offering for him in 2023, it was still his best pitch — that’s how bad the other two have been. The value of his fastball and his slider both dipped dramatically, which became the main issue for his step backward.
After his prolonged struggles at the big league level continued, the Pirates optioned Ortiz back to Triple-A Indianapolis on July 5.
His results with Indianapolis since going back down have been even worse than what he did with Pittsburgh.
At the time of his promotion to the Pirates in May, Ortiz had a 2.23 ERA in Triple-A. After only three appearances back with the Indians, Ortiz’s ERA has ballooned to 4.71.
Across those three outings, Ortiz is 0-3 with a 13.03 ERA (14er/9.2ip). The right-hander has allowed 15 hits (three home runs), has walked 10 and has only struck out eight batters.
The Pirates had been counting on Ortiz to be an integral part of their pitching staff both this year and in the years ahead.
Ortiz is still young, only 24 years old, but there are some pretty large concerning factors with him currently.
What looked like a potential breakout prospect only five months ago has now turned into a pretty large question mark, and one the Pirates could ill-afford to have.
Ortiz needs to regain his confidence, but in order to do that, he needs to regain the velocity and the effectiveness of his pitches that he showed in 2022.
Of course, that’s easier said than done.