Bet Oneil Cruz Over his 2025 Home Runs Prop

The Pirates need a massive season from Oneil Cruz to finish the 2025 season with a winning record. We’ve all seen Cruz’s raw power—his 472-foot bomb at Chase Field last year was one of the season’s highlights. 

Cruz had a decent 2024, hitting .256 with 21 dingers and 76 RBIs. The Buccos need more. Will they get it from the massive Cruz? 

Cruz’s over/under 2025 home runs prop is 24.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB odds. He only needs to hit four more than 2024 to go over, and I believe he can. Unfortunately, other factors may keep Cruz from hitting 25 or more. 

40 Whacks With a Wet Noodle

An insipid offense that ranked 25th in team home runs (160) and 24th in runs scored per game (4.10) killed the 2024 Bucs. 

Needing more pop in the lineup, Pirates GM Ben Cherington traded for Spencer Horwitz, a first base prospect who, in 2024, hit 12 home runs in his 328 ABs. Horwitz is young, but he isn’t much of an offensive upgrade at first base from Rowdy Tellez.

Horwitz also had wrist surgery last month and won’t return until after opening day.

The Pirates’ offseason acquisitions don’t give me much faith. Cruz has little protection and won’t get many pitches to drive. Despite the pop-gun lineup, Cruz’s bat speed and exit velocity should get plenty of balls out of the park. 

NL Central Pitching is Weak

The Chicago Cubs, the current NL Central favorite, may have the deepest starting five in the division (other than the Pirates). They added Matthew Boyd to a rotation featuring Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Justin Steele. Boyd and Imanaga both posted ERAs below three last season. 

The Milwaukee starting rotation hinges on Brandon Woodruff’s health. Woodruff hasn’t faced a batter in almost two years after his 2023 season ended with a shoulder injury. 

The Cardinals and Reds? St. Louis is in flux, letting veteran Lance Lynn walk after a 2024 season where he posted a 3.84 ERA. Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, and Erick Fedde are locked into the Cards starting five. None of them are a bonafide ace. 

Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene had an all-star 2024 season, and he could be the hidden gem of all NL Central pitchers. His pitch arsenal, including a wicked split-finger fastball, got him 169 strike-outs and a 10.1 K/9 in 26 starts. 

After Greene, however, the Reds’ rotation drops off a cliff. Brady Singer, acquired from the Kansas City Royals, has a lifetime ERA of 4.28. New Reds manager Terry Francona’s creativity will get tested during the 2025 season.

Cruz Getting Comfortable

The decision to move Cruz to center field felt abrupt but necessary. Cruz committed a whopping 24 errors at SS in 2024, but the Bucs need his athleticism on the field. Besides, franchise legend Andrew McCutchen fills the DH hole. 

An offseason and spring training in the outfield will help Cruz get more comfortable. That comfort could get him out of his head and help him focus on his hitting, which could reap dividends through the 2025 season. 

Bet Oneil Cruz Over 24.5 Home Runs

The Pirates need a superstar season from Cruz to compete in the NL Central. I don’t know if Cruz can reach the Aaron Judge stratosphere, but he’s capable of 30 HR. Maybe not this year. 

A full season in center field and weak NL Central pitching will help Cruz exceed 24.5 dingers in 2025.