Perrotto: One Pirates Starting Pitcher Seems Poised for Breakout (+)
JT Brubaker doesn’t necessarily fit the breakout player profile.
The Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander is 29 years old. He has compiled a 9-28 in his three-year career in the major leagues. Brubaker’s .243 winning percentage in that span is the worst among any major-league pitcher with at least 25 decisions.
Yet multiple scouts and statistical analysts believe Brubaker is ready to turn things around this season despite his somewhat advancing age.
The numbers crowd points to his 3.69 FIP (fielding independent pitching) last year that factors out balls in play. That was exactly one full point lower than Brubaker’s 4.69 ERA that he compiled over 28 starts while going 3-12.
Brubaker also believes he has yet to reach his full potential.
“It’s just the experience I’ve gained, the understanding I’ve gained of the pace of the game,” Brubaker said during the Pirates’ spring training camp in Bradenton, Fla. “These hitters are the best players in the world. You have to learn how to be able to go out there and gameplan against them, know how to attack and figure stuff out.
“It’s definitely a learning curve and something that I feel like I’m 100% getting better at being able to advance my craft on the mound of how I’m going to pitch guys.”
One of the ways Brubaker has adjusted is by changing his pitch arsenal.
He throws a two-seam fastball rather than a four-seamer to complement his slider. Brubaker has pretty much scrapped his curveball and relies less on his changeup.
There was a time when some scouts thought Brubaker might be better suited to pitching for relief, where he could heavily on his slider and its high spin rate. However, he has been a starter since earlier in his rookie year during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season.
“I take starting as a passion like I want to be the guy that’s able to take the ball every five, six days — depending on the rotation — just be able to go out there and give as many innings as possible,” Brubaker said. “I want to be that guy you call – quote, unquote — a workhorse. I take pride in going out there, taking the ball, being ready to compete and going as long and deep into a game as possible.”
Baseball Prospectus is one outlet that expects Brubaker to have a good season. Its PECOTA projection system pegs him to go 8-11 with a 3.81 ERA.
That won’t put Brubaker in the National League Cy Young Award conversation. However, it would certainly be a step up.
Through five starts and 17.1 innings in Grapefruit League play, Brubaker has a 5.19 ERA as he has given up 10 runs on 16 hits. However, an encouraging sign is his 26 strikeouts and three walks, an outstanding 8.67 ratio.
Brubaker is averaging 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings this spring. His career rate is 9.2.
This is Brubaker’s first normal spring training since 2019, the year before he made his major-league debut. The pandemic cut short camp in 2020 and spring training started late last season and was truncated following the owners locking out the players for 99 days in a labor dispute.
“Just with everything that’s happened in the past few years, it’s nice to get back to normalcy and having what should be a full and normal season,” Brubaker said. “I’m excited for the season. I think it’s going to be a good year for me and the team.”
Others certainly feel it is going to be a good 2023 for Brubaker, too.
More about:PBN+ Pirates Pirates Spring Training