Perrotto: Determining Where Bryan Reynolds Stands Among MLB Outfielders (+)
Bryan Reynolds has shown plenty of signs of stardom during his four seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
As a rookie in 2019, Reynolds was seventh in the National League in batting average when he hit .314/.377/.503 with 16 home runs in 134 games.
Reynolds started for the National League in the 2021 All-Star Game. In that season, he had a .302/.390/.522 slash line with a league-leading eight triples and 24 homers in 159 games. His 6.0 bWAR ranked seventh in the NL and he finished 11th in the league MVP balloting, impressive considering he played on a 61-101 team.
However, Reynolds has given some reason for pause at other times.
He had a bad pandemic-shortened 2020 season as he batted .189/.275/.357 with seven homers in 55 games. That season was not normal, though, so not a lot of stock can be put into those numbers.
Reynolds, though, did slip in 2022 from his lofty numbers of 2021 as he hit .262/.345/.461, though he bumped his homer total to 27. His bWAR fell to 2.9 in large part to him grading out at minus-14 in defensive runs saved.
I am not convinced that WAR is the greatest statistic ever invented. I’ll be more convinced when everyone can agree on the same formula for computing it.
DRS also has its drawbacks. However, Reynolds also did not pass the eye test as he seemed to consistently have trouble going back on balls.
Considering the good and bad of Reynolds’ first four seasons, the bargaining positions of both sides can be understood as they have unsuccessfully tried to work out a long-term contract. The talks are presumably at a standstill and Reynolds requested a trade last month.
Reynolds’ camp can make a case that he is one of the better outfielders in the major leagues, especially based on his 2019 and 2021 seasons, and should be paid accordingly. The Pirates can point to 2020 and his regression in 2022 and justify not going overboard with an offer.
| [bet-promo id=”2769″ ] |
So where exactly does Reynolds stand among major league outfielders? We ran some numbers using Baseball Reference’s Stathead (subscription required and recommended).
We took all players who had at least 1,500 plate appearances from 2019-22 and played a minimum of half their games in the outfield. This is where Reynolds ranks in some key categories:
His .281 batting average ranks ninth between Bryce Harper (.282) and Nick Castellanos (.280). Michael “Dr. Smooth” Brantley has the highest mark with a .306 average. Too bad Reynolds doesn’t have a cool nickname.
His .361 on-base percentage is 11th between Mookie Betts (.367) and George Springer (.360). Juan Soto’s .428 OBP tops the list.
His .481 slugging percentage stands 12th between Joc Pederson (.485) and AJ Pollock (.473). Aaron Judge’s .594 mark is easily the best.
His .842 OPS ranks ninth between Christian Yelich (.850) and Teoscar Hernandez (.833). Judge stands No. 1 at .896.
His 128 OPS+ — meaning Reynolds’ offensive performance has been 28% above MLB average – is ninth between Yelich (129) and Kyle Schwarber (127). Judge is again first at 168.
Granted, this isn’t the most scientific exercise.
However, it provides a pretty good idea that Reynolds’ camp is justified in considering him one of the top 10 outfielders in the game. That is why the Pirates are going to have to pony up more than $75 million over six seasons to get a deal done.
It also shows why if the Pirates have determined that they can’t afford Reynolds – and they apparently have – then they really should hold out for a big return in a trade.