Why Luis Robert Jr. Does and Does Not Make Sense as a Pirates’ Trade Target (+)
Take a look at the current National League Wild Card standings and you’ll see the Pittsburgh Pirates are right in the thick of things — as are 10 of 12 non-division leaders in the league.
In addition to the three teams who currently hold a Wild Card position – the Braves, Cardinals and Nationals — only the Rockies and Marlins are more than 1.5 games back in the standings.
While it’s still very early in the season and there is much to be played out before the true contenders ultimately emerge, the Pirates are in a good position to hang around as summer kicks off thanks to one advantage.
The top three, really the top four, of the Pirates’ starting rotation has been excellent. Paul Skenes has been every bit as advertised since joining the rotation in May and Jared Jones has been among the league’s best rookies for the majority of the season.
Mitch Keller, meanwhile, is again looking like an All-Star after representing the Pirates in the Midsummer Classic in 2023. Left-hander Bailey Falter has been a pleasant surprise this season and has a solid 3.74 ERA after throwing seven-strong innings against the Reds on Tuesday night.
As good as the starting pitching has been, the Pirates’ offense has been holding them back for much of the season.
The Pirates are in the bottom five in baseball in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging. They’re in the bottom third in runs scored and homers.
Center field in particular has been a weak spot for Pittsburgh. Pirates’ center fielders have combined for a .553 OPS this season, ahead of only the St. Louis Cardinals (.476).
Enter White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr., who is expected to be one of the most highly-coveted players leading up to this year’s trade deadline.
The White Sox are one of a handful of surefire sellers this July with an MLB-worst 20-55 record.
Robert’s appeal around the league is for a variety of reasons. He makes sense for the Pirates as well as many other teams, but should Ben Cherington pull the trigger?
The Case For a Pirates Trade
When Robert has been healthy, he’s proven to be a very good player. In 145 games with Chicago last season, the 26-year-old hit .264 with an .857 OPS, 36 doubles, 38 home runs, 80 RBIs and 20 stolen bases. He was named an All-Star, received a Silver Slugger and finished 12th in the American League MVP race.
Robert isn’t off to as good of a start through 21 games this season. He’s slashing .195/.271/.494 with seven home runs, 10 RBIs and a pair of stolen bases. Still, the power is hard to ignore.
Even with the lowly batting average, Robert could anchor the three-spot in the Pirates’ lineup behind Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever before this season and the Pirates have been searching for a reliable three-hole hitter in the lineup all season.
In addition to his offense, Robert is solid with the glove and the Pirates put an emphasis on up-the-middle defense. He won a Gold Glove in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and posted six defensive runs saved in addition to 13 outs above average last season.
Perhaps the most intriguing element for the Pirates in regards to Robert is that he is under team control for the next three seasons at a reasonable price. Next year, he’s set to earn $15 million and the Pirates would have a pair of club options valued at $20 million in both 2026-27.
Sure, that’s a high price tag by Pirates’ standards, but it’s a reasonable salary for a player in his prime.
The Case Against a Pirates Trade
Since Robert will be so sought after, in addition to his upside and contractual control, the asking price to land his services will be substantial. The Pirates would have to be willing part with either Termarr Johnson or Bubba Chandler – if not both – if they wanted to be viewed as a serious suitor. That typically hasn’t been the Pirates’ style.
Another reason the Pirates could decide not to pursue Robert is what he’s done this season. While his power has still been on display, it’s hard to ignore his sub-.200 batting average. Additionally, he’s striking out in nearly 39% of his plate appearances in 2024 after going down on strikes a whopping 172 times in just under 600 plate appearances last season.
And finally, Robert’s injury history raises some red flags. The White Sox center fielder was placed on the injured list with a hip injury shortly after the start of the 2024 season, the same hip injury that ailed him during the 2021 season. This comes after ended last year’s campaign on the IL with an MCL sprain. Robert has had numerous other stints on the IL due to a variety of injuries in his career. He’s only played more than 100 games in a single season once.
Parting Thoughts
There’s no question that there is plenty of upside with Robert and he could help spark a lackluster Pirates’ offense. But is it worth the asking price, especially when taking into account the different risk factors?
My gut tells me it would be a ‘no’ from Cherington and the Pirates.
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