Skenes Still 2025 NL Cy Young Favorite

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes is the current favorite to win the 2025 NL Cy Young, according to the latest MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. The second-year phenom is now priced at -200 to claim the award. 

Skenes struggled in his last start versus the Milwaukee Brewers, getting the hook in the fourth inning after surrendering four runs on four hits. Yet, the betting market hasn’t shifted much, as Skenes remains the favorite as the best pitcher in the NL.

Why is Paul Skenes still the prohibitive favorite in the NL Cy Young market despite a losing record? Let’s take a deeper look.

Skenes Has Name Recognition

The NFL betting markets are ruled by what betting professionals call “public teams.” These are teams that transcend local media markets and captivate the average fan. Think the Dallas Cowboys, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Tom Brady-era New England Patriots. 

Casual bettors will wager on these teams, and bookmakers will skew the odds to reflect their popularity. In other words, you, the bettor, pay a premium for wagering on public teams because the odds don’t reflect actual probability. 

After last season, when the entire sports media and baseball fans were captivated by “Skenes Day” every five or so days, Paul Skenes is akin to the Dallas Cowboys for casual bettors and sports fans. 

You aren’t going to get the best price possible on Skenes, and his status as the Cy Young favorite won’t likely change through the season. 

He’s Still Excellent, Though

Paul Skenes is a phenom. Is he the National League’s best pitcher in 2025?  

Skenes’ 4-7 record doesn’t reflect his mastery. His 2.12 ERA ranks first in the NL, and he also ranks first with a 4.0 WAR. 

Skenes is also the leader in hits per nine innings, surrendering only 5.689 while ranking fifth in strikeouts with 110. 

So, yes, Skenes is the best pitcher in the NL so far. And yes, his -200 odds are inflated because of name recognition. But they’re also not as inflated as they could be because he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates. I’d say the odds likely hover around -350 or -400 if Skenes pitched for the Mets. 

Is Voter Sympathy a Thing?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 32-50, on pace for 62-64 wins. They aren’t Colorado Rockies bad, but the Pirates have managed an almost impossible feat: they’re getting worse with the league’s best pitcher in the starting rotation. 

Skenes might be 4-7 as a starter in 2025, but that losing record isn’t his fault. He’s made 12 quality starts this season and is often undone by the woeful Pirates offense. 

Baseball fans and media are aware that the Pittsburgh Pirates are a hapless and struggling organization. The voting media see the Pirates’ lack of commitment to winning with Skenes and could vote for him as the 2025 Cy Young winner based on his performance in an impossible situation. 

Skenes Deserves 2025 NL Cy Young Favorite Status

Considering his stats and public perception, -200 is not a terrible price for Skenes to win the 2025 NL Cy Young. The 2025 MLB season is at the halfway point, and I’m not sure how the odds will move. 

A few more quality starts could push that number to -250 or -300, especially if he once again shines during the upcoming MLB All-Star Game.