Skenes’ NL Cy Young Odds Are Too Short

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes enters the season as the favorite to win the 2025 NL Cy Young. FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB odds have Skenes priced at +200, the shortest odds of any pitcher in the National League and the American League. 

The young pitcher is the only ray of hope for long-suffering Pirates fans, but one arm can’t save a sinking ship. And the state of the Pirates franchise might torpedo Skenes’ chances at an award-winning sophomore season. 

With Skenes-a-mania set to run wild on MLB batters this season, here are a few reasons I believe his Cy Young odds are too short. 

The Pirates Aren’t a Good Team

Pitchers from losing teams have claimed the Cy Young award only 18 times since 1956.  

The last pitcher to do so was Sandy Alcántara in 2022. The Miami Marlins won only 69 games that season, but Alcántara won 14. He also finished with a 2.28 ERA and 0.63 HR/9. 

Skenes is certainly capable of those numbers. Last year, he finished with a 1.96 ERA, 150 strikeouts, and an 11-3 record on a Pirates team that won 76 games. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a perpetual bottom-feeding franchise that won’t garner much national attention this season. They’re not likely to win the NL Central, compete for a Wild Card, or even win 82 games. 

The moribund state of the Bucs may hamper Skenes’ chances of winning the Cy Young, especially as he must compete with other NL superstar pitchers like Spencer Strider, Blake Snell, and Zack Wheeler. 

The Shine Wears Off?

Last year, Paul Skenes was the rookie phenom flummoxing the game’s best hitters with 100+ gas. The rookie’s dynamic arm drew massive attention from the national media.

Now he’s a bonafide superstar in a league filled with superstars. Will he captivate the baseball media in the same manner?

Maybe. Probably. Then again, maybe not. 

If Skenes gets roughed up a few times this season (it happens to every great pitcher) and his stats regress a bit over a full season, baseball writers may look elsewhere in the season’s waning months. 

Other NL Pitchers May Spoil the NL Cy Young Party

One can’t help but look at the Los Angeles Dodgers as a party spoiler. Not only do the Dodgers have a payroll over $300 million, they have a rotation full of pitchers who’d be aces in most MLB rotations. 

Blake Snell, Yashinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani constitute a rotation that rivals the Four Horsemen of the Apocolypse. 

Snell and Yamamoto reside in the top five on the 2025 Cy Young odds board, while Glasnow comes in at +3000. Those pitchers are all capable of a dominant season and will grab headlines because they play for the league’s best team. 

Ohtani, of course, is MLB’s premier superstar. If he hits 40 HR while posting a sub-2.5 ERA, he’ll suck all attention away from Skenes.