Should You Bet the Bucs to Win the National League in 2025?

The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year winner and Cy Young finalist, Paul Skenes, is the best starting pitcher in the MLB. His arm isn’t likely to carry the Pirates to a National League victory, according to FanDuel’s MLB odds. 

The hapless Pirates are 60-to-1 (+6000) to win the NL next year. Their odds would likely be longer if Skenes weren’t the vital cog of the Pittsburgh starting rotation. 

Laying money on the Pirates to win the 2025 National League Pennant means betting on a lot more than the success of the opening-day roster. You believe the front office will make bold moves to improve the team.

Consider these three points before betting on the Bucs as NL winners in 2025.

1. You’re Betting on Ownership and Management

Do you think Bob Nutting and GM Ben Cherington will improve the 2025 roster to compete in the National League Central? There’s no track record to suggest they will. 

Last year, the Pirates Opening Day payroll was $85,760,000. Only the Oakland Athletics spent less than the Bucs. 

Money doesn’t always equal success in MLB, but no team can win with a payroll under $100 million. 

Potential off-season targets like Chas McCormick won’t improve the team enough, but his $3 million minimum price tag is what Nutting and Cherington are willing to pay.

2. You’re Betting on Players Wanting to Play Here

The Pirates DFA’d Rowdy Tellez when he was four plate appearances away from collecting a $200,000 bonus. 

This decision came after manager Derek Shelton embarrassed Tellez and disrespected the game by using the first baseman as a relief pitcher in games where the Pirates were on the wrong side of a blowout. 

So, is there a free agent worth anything willing to play for the Pirates after that fiasco?

We know the way of professional athletes and the world—money talks and B.S. walks. I’d wager most MLB free agents think the Pirates shovel tons of the latter during contract negotiations.

3. You’re Betting on Staying the Course

What if I told you that a World Series-winning manager was available at a reasonable price? 

What if that manager also had massive success with another small market franchise as recently as two seasons ago? What if he grew up in the Pittsburgh area?

Would you move heaven and earth to sign him? 

The Pirates opted otherwise with New Brighton, PA native Terry Francona. Francona came out of retirement to manage the Pirates’ small-market NL Central rival, the Cincinnati Reds. 

If approached, would Francona have managed the Pirates? We’ll never know because the Pirates never asked. 

The franchise opted to stay with Derek Shelton, who, during five years as Pittsburgh skipper, has posted a 292-414 record. Shelton’s .415 winning percentage is lower than Lloyd McClendon and Jim Tracy’s.

A manager can only do so much with the talent available, but hiring Francona would’ve served as a clear reset after a disastrous 21-33 skid ended the 2024 season. 

2025 MLB National League Odds: Do the Pirates Have Value?

The MLB offseason has not yet revealed how the Pirates plan to improve their 2025 fortunes if they plan to do anything. 

Laying money on the Bucs to win the NL at +6000 isn’t a bet on the current team but a leap of faith in the franchise. I can’t make that jump, even with Skenes poised to have a monster sophomore season.