Pirates Position Group Breakdown: Starting Pitching Key if Pirates Have Success

This is one in a series of breaking down the Pittsburgh Pirates position groups leading up to spring training. 

Exactly half the teams in Major League Baseball last season had a sub-4.00 ERA from their starting pitching. The Pirates were one of them, tied with the Toronto Blue Jays with a 3.95 mark.

If the Pirates want to make a jump towards contention this season, it will be because of ace Paul Skenes and the rest of the starting rotation.

Skenes has already emerged as one of the top starting pitchers in baseball just 23 starts into his major-league career. The big right-hander won the National League Rookie of the Year after finishing 11-3 with a spectacular 1.96 ERA. Skenes set the Pirates’ single-season rookie record with 170 strikeouts.

Skenes alone makes the Pirates’ rotation the definite bright spot of the team, but there are several capable arms comprising the projected starting five. And there are reinforcements not far behind.

Mitch Keller, the de-facto “veteran” of the starting rotation will enter the second year of the five-year contract extension he signed last year during spring training.

Keller had a fine 2024 season but faded down the stretch. The 28-year-old went 11-12 with a 4.25 ERA across 31 starts. He’ll look to try and put two halves together and take a step further for the Pirates in 2025.

Skenes was not the only rookie starting pitcher to show promise — and a 100 mph fastball — for the Pirates last season. Jared Jones cracked the club’s Opening Day roster and made 22 starts on the year. He posted a 4.14 ERA, struck out 132 batters in 121.2 innings and a .232 opponent batting average.

After the top three, the final two spots are not as much of a sure-thing, but the Pirates have two relatively-established starters who have shown they are capable — if healthy.

Bailey Falter’s 2024 campaign was his first as a full-time starter in the big leagues. The left-hander made a career-high 28 starts and went 8-9 with a 4.43 ERA. For a four-month stretch from early April to early August, Falter had a very respectable 3.46 ERA in 18 starts.

And finally, Johan Oviedo will return to the mound after being sidelined for all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. The last time he pitched, the imposing righty made his career-high 32nd start at the end of the 2023 season. He totaled 177.2 innings and pitched to a 4.31 ERA as one of two full-time starters in the Pirates’ rotation to end the season.

Those five make up a strong foundation already, but the Pirates have several top prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues.

Three of our top five organizational prospects are starting pitchers who finished last season with Triple-A Indianapolis — Bubba Chandler (No. 1), Thomas Harrington (No. 4) and Braxton Ashcraft (No. 5).

Even with the level of talent waiting in the shadows, the Pirates would be wise to add some starting pitching between now and the start of spring training next week. There’s no such thing as too much rotation depth.

Given the potential and good fortune when it comes to health, Pirates’ starting pitching has the chance to keep them in a playoff hunt. But it will be on the rest of the roster to step up and support what looks like the biggest strength of the team.