Does Paul Skenes Still Have Edge in Rookie of the Year Race?

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes has been one of the biggest storylines across Major League Baseball this season.

The 22-year-old made his major-league debut in May, roughly 10 months after he was selected by the Pirates with the top pick in the 2023 draft out of LSU. From day one, the big right-hander has captivated fans around the league.

Skenes is every pitching coach’s dream. He’s big-bodied, has a repeatable deliver, a triple-digit fastball which pairs with a one-of-a-kind splinker. Skenes is mature beyond his years and has a tremendous work ethic.

Through his first 15 starts with the Pirates, Skenes is 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and has struck out 115 batters in 92 innings. He’s also held opponents to a .205 batting average and a .585 OPS.

Only 11 starts into his career, Skenes became the fifth rookie pitcher in MLB history to start the All-Star Game. In his All-Star debut, Skenes tossed a scoreless inning for the National League.

Not all that long ago, Skenes looked liked the runaway favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year. But suddenly, the race has gotten much more interesting.

For essentially the first time in his career, Skenes has looked pedestrian, even though his overall numbers are still strong. In his two August starts, Skenes has allowed six runs on 11 hits with four walks and 12 strikeouts in 11.1 innings pitched.

Meanwhile, San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill has been scorching and has made what was once viewed as a runaway race become extremely close.

Merrill, who like Skenes was an All-Star this season, has played in 118 games with the Padres in his first year. He’s slashing .288/.321/.481 with 19 doubles, five triples, 17 home runs, 66 RBIs and 13 stolen bases.

The 21-year-old has been especially hot over the past two months. Since the middle of June, Merrill is batting .300 with a whopping .922 OPS, 12 home runs and 40 RBIs across 50 games.

Also in Merrill’s favor, he has been on the roster for the entire season with a team that looks likely headed to the postseason. Skenes didn’t make his debut until May 11 and the Pirates continue to fall of a cliff in the playoff race amidst an epic collapse.

Comparing a starting pitcher’s statistics to a position player’s for an award can be tricky, but there is one way to quantify who could have the edge.

Looking at the odds on FanDuel sportsbook, Skenes is still a slight favorite to win the award at -165. Merrill is right on his tail at +125. It currently looks like a two-horse race with Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio a distant third at +2500.

So for now, Skenes might have the edge. But Merrill’s emergence down the stretch has made this an intriguing race to follow over the final few weeks of the season. Can the Pirates’ prized rookie hold off the Padres’ blossoming star?

Best Bets

Skenes will have a chance to boost his resume when he takes on the Seattle Mariners at PNC Park on Friday night and he’ll need to be on his a-game. Skenes is one half of an exciting pitching matchup along with Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert.

On the year, Gilbert is 7-8 with a 2.91 ERA and leads baseball with a 0,873 WHIP. Like Skenes, he was a first-time All-Star this season.

On top of the talent of both starting pitchers, both offenses rank towards the bottom in MLB in runs scored. The Pirates rank 24th with 496 runs scored and Seattle is 27th with 481.

Considering both factors, the over/under for Friday’s game is set at just 6.5 runs. Taking the under comes with even money (+100), and FanDuel considers the value one of their three best bets for Friday’s slate.

For Skenes’ sake in the Rookie of the Year race, the under hitting would be beneficial to his cause.