Perrotto: Five Pirates Predictions for 2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ season opener is only one day away.

The Pirates face the Marlins at 4:10 p.m. Wednesday at loanDepot Park in Miami. By a quirk of scheduling, it will mark the second year in a row the Pirates start the season in Miami.

The Pirates went on to finish 76-86 last season. They were 76-86 in 2023, too. Could they go 76-86 again in 2025?

The odds would seem against them having the same record in three straight seasons. However, it would be a Bucco-like way of spinning their wheels.

Here are five Pirates’ predictions for 2025:

Paul Skenes Wins NL Cy Young Award

OK, so I’m not going on a limb here. Paul Skenes is favored by all the sportsbooks to win the National League Cy Young Award in his first full major-league season.

Winning the Cy Young would be a natural progression for Skenes after he won the NL Rookie of the Year award last year. He also finished third in the Cy Young voting.

Skenes has the talent to win plenty of Cy Young awards and should get better. Not satisfied with going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 23 starts last season, Skenes has added two more pitches in a sinker and cutter.
It’s going to be an awful lot of fun to see how he does in his first big-league season.

Oneil Cruz: Offense Good, Defense Bad

I hate to ever predict a potential injury, but I’d be a little worried if I were left fielder Tommy Pham or right fielder Bryan Reynolds.

Oneil Cruz beings his first full year in center field after being moved from shortstop late last season. Cruz looked unsure in the outfield and had minus-3 defensive runs saved in 23 games.

While it’s hard to draw many conclusions on 23 games, I always come back to Cruz’s lack of baseball instincts. I foresee him being an outfield collision waiting to happen. I hope I’m wrong.

On the plus side, I think Cruz is ready to break out offensively after hitting 21 home runs and stealing 22 bases last year. This year, he goes 30-30.

Spencer Horwitz Has Lost Season

First baseman Spencer Horwitz was the Pirates’ biggest offseason acquisition, coming from the Toronto Blue Jays via the Cleveland Guardians in a trade at the MLB Winter Meetings.

However, Horwitz sustained a hand injury over the winter and underwent surgery. He will start the season on the injured list and there is no timetable when he might return to the active roster.

Hand injuries are tricky for hitters because it takes time to rebuild grip strength. It seems more likely that Horwitz makes a bigger impact in 2026 than in 2025.

Mike Burrows Takes Leap

Mike Burrows pitched in the 2022 All-Star Futures Game at Dodger Stadium. However, he underwent Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery and fell off the map until he made his major-league debut at Yankee Stadium on the penultimate day of last season and was the winning pitcher.

Despite his knack for having big moments in iconic stadiums, Burrows will be the No. 4 starter in Triple-A Indianapolis’ rotation after Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington and Braxton Ashcraft.

However, it would be unwise to sleep on Burrows. He is healthy again and will help the major-league club at some point this season.

Yet Another Losing Year

The Pirates have some players to get excited about, especially Skenes, Cruz and the always-reliable Bryan Reynolds.

However, there are too many holes in the lineup and the bullpen is a big question mark as closer David Bednar followed a bad 2024 season with a poor spring. Skenes can only take this team so far.

A 29th losing season in the last 33 years awaits. The Pirates won’t quite make it to 76-86, finishing 75-87 and fourth in the National League Central ahead of only the St. Louis Cardinals.

So while a sub.-500 finish is in the cards, at least the Pirates will be better than the Cards.

Griffin Floyd gave his five predictions on Monday. Danny Demilio gave his on Tuesday.