Pirates

Pirates Preview: Can Paul Skenes Sink the Brew Crew?

Published

4 weeks ago

May 23, 2025

Photo provided by Matt Lynch

Rise and shine, Pirate fans, and Happy Paul Skenes Day!

On today’s holiday, it’s a special one, folks. In the midst of Paul Skenes’ blockbuster trade suggestions, Pirates general manager Ben Cherington shut down those rumors… for at least this season, that is.

While the face of the franchise has been dealing on the mound this year, the offense, well… you know the deal.

In the Statcast era, “Weighted on Base Average on Contact” (WOBACON) measures offensive impact on contact. The Pirates rank last with a .314—the worst ever recorded—and currently trail the league-leading New York Yankees by 100 points.

The Pirates (17-34) had a rough game against the Brewers (25-26), including a two-hour rain delay that cleared out most fans—only two were seen behind home plate when play resumed in the eighth.

The Buccos did well against the Brew Crew offensively, believe it or not, with nine hits and five runs. Yes, the Pirates did not set a new record of consecutive games scoring four runs or fewer. Nonetheless, the trio of the Brewers’ Aaron Civale, Rob Zastryzny, and Carlos Rodriguez was enough to limit the Pirates.

The Pirates will try to avenge their division rival on Fireworks Night this evening at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on SportsNet Pittsburgh and 93.7 The Fan.

Weather

Mix of clouds and sunshine with temperatures in the high 50s. Winds WNW at 12 MPH.

RHP Paul Skenes (3-5, 2.44 ERA) Will Start for the Pirates

The reigning NL Rookie of the Year will take the mound tonight, coming off of his best performance of the season and his first-career complete game.

He allowed three hits, one walk, and one earned run over a season-high eight innings, tying his season-high of nine strikeouts against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday at Citizens Bank Park.

Despite a 3-5 record in 10 starts, Skenes has delivered a solid season for the Pirates, posting a 2.44 ERA over 62.2 innings with 62 strikeouts and 16 walks while limiting opponents to a .190 batting average.

The story around Skenes this season, funny enough, is not his success; it’s his win-loss record.

His win-loss record is more a reflection of limited run support, with the Pirates scoring just 31 total runs across his starts — a stretch that includes a 10-3 victory over the Nationals at PNC Park on April 14.

Regardless, the young phenom has been red hot, putting up a 2.07 ERA in his last seven outings, but with a 2-5 record.

According to Baseball Savant, Skenes’ Expected Weighted On-base Average (xWOBA), a Statcast statistic formulated using exit velocity, launch angle, and, on certain types of batted balls, sprint speed, ranks fourth in baseball with a .259 average. He is the youngest in the top 100 of this stat.

Skenes made one start against the Brewers and threw 7.0 no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts prior to the bullen taking over.

RHP Freddy Peralta (5-3, 2.59 ERA) Will Start for the Brewers

The ace of the Brewers has been dominant this season.

Over his last six starts, Peralta has been an all-star presence on the mound, posting a 4-2 record with a 2.78 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 29:12 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 27.1 innings.

Overall, the 28-year-old has a 2.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings through 55.2 innings this season.

Peralta is coming off of a nice bounce-back win, following a rough showing at Cleveland, with a win at home against Minnesota, allowing just three hits and one run while punching out five across five innings.

This season has been historic for Peralta as well. However, in a positive manner. Peralta recently became the youngest active pitcher in the MLB to accumulate 1,000 career strikeouts.

Peralta walks into PNC Park with a pitching run value of 95, a 36-point difference from last season, when he was sitting at league average with a 59. Now, he sits in the top 10% of pitchers in that category.

The right-hander has faced the Pirates more than any other team in his career. In 22 career appearances/13 starts, he’s gone 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA.

Brewers Hitters vs. Skenes

William Contreras: 0 for 3, one strikeout
Sal Frelick: 0 for 3, one strikeout
Brice Turang: 0 for 3, two strikeouts
Christian Yelich: 0 for 3, one strikeout
Andruw Monasterio: 0 for 2, one strikeout
Jake Bauers: 0 for 1, one strikeout

Pirates Hitters vs. Peralta

Bryan Reynolds: 12 for 31, one double, one triple, one home run, three RBI, four walks, two strikeouts
Andrew McCutchen: 5 for 14, two doubles, one home run, two RBI, six strikeouts
Adam Frazier: 2 for 12, one double, two walks, one strikeout
Ke’Bryan Hayes: 2 for 12, one home run, three RBI, one walk, two strikeouts
Tommy Pham: 1 for 10, one walk, six strikeouts
Jared Triolo: 1 for 7, one RBI, two strikeouts
Oneil Cruz: 0 for 6, two walks, one strikeout
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 1 for 3
Joey Bart: 1 for 2, one home run, three RBI, one walk
Henry Davis: 0 for 2: one walk, two strikeouts

Tidbits

In Paul Skenes’ eight career losses, the Pirates have scored just nine total runs, despite him posting a 3.44 ERA. That’s the lowest ERA in losses by any starting pitcher over the past two seasons (minimum five losses). During that time, the average ERA for starters in losses is 7.50.
Skenes ranks in the top 7% of ERA in the MLB with a 2.47 ERA.
The Pirates’ offense ranks in the bottom five of baseball in BA (.219), OBP (.300), and SLG (.322)