Why Pirates Should and Shouldn’t Have Confidence for 2025 (+)
If wins and losses are your measuring stick, the Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t show any improvement this past season.
The Pirates concluded the 2024 regular season with an identical 76-86 record as they had the year before. The 2023 season, however, marked a 14-win improvement from a 100-loss season in 2022.
But despite the same disappointing end, the Pirates remain confident heading into next year.
“Going into 2025 puts a smile on my face,” said starter Mitch Keller following his final start of the season. “I think we have a lot of great talent in this room, especially on the pitching staff.”
“I just see a bright future with our pitching staff and the young guys we have,” Isiah-Kiner Falefa said earlier in the season.
There were others who made similar remarks, too. Yes, the Pirates genuinely feel confident for next season. And yes, there are reasons they should, but there are even more reasons why they shouldn’t.
Why Pirates Should Be Confident
The first one is clear and it’s because of potential National League Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes. The Pirates have a legitimate ace to anchor their staff, not only for next season, but for several years to come. Skenes has already emerged as one of the game’s undisputed top starting pitchers.
Skenes finished his rookie campaign with an 11-3 record while the Pirates went 15-8 in his 23 starts. It seems like anytime the big right-hander toes the rubber, the Pirates have a chance to win the game. If he stays healthy next year, Skenes will make in excess of 30 starts. The more Skenes the better for the Pirates.
After Skenes, the rest of the Pirates’ starting rotation looks strong heading into next season. He’ll be followed by Keller, fellow rookie Jared Jones as well as Bailey Falter and Luis Ortiz, both of whom emerged as legitimate starting pitches this year.
Pirates’ starters finished the season with a respectable 3.95 ERA. An already strong mark, the Pirates will have reinforcements next year, too. Johan Oviedo, who had a solid 2023 season, will return after missing all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery. Top prospect Bubba Chandler headlines a group of promising starting pitching prospects in the upper levels of the minor league system.
There’s plenty of reason to believe the Pirates’ rotation will be even stronger in 2025.
On the hitting side of things, the Pirates fired hitting coach Andy Haines. Under Haines’ guidance over the last three seasons, the offense struggled and was routinely towards the bottom of the league in most major categories.
Perhaps a new hitting coach and new hitting philosophy will help spark an offense that will again be relying on Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz to serve as the key producers.
Why Pirates Shouldn’t Be Confident
In staying with the offense, it’s going to take more than a change at hitting coach to see meaningful results from mediocracy. The Pirates are going to have to see improvement from a handful of internal players who are coming off of rough seasons.
Ke’Bryan Hayes battled a lingering back issue and never found his groove at the plate. Jack Suwinski was perhaps the Pirates’ most disappointing player after showing some encouraging signs in 2023. Henry Davis has nothing left to prove at Triple-A but has yet to produce in the big leagues. All three players were viewed as important pieces but fell well below expectations.
Elsewhere, the bullpen was a major disappointment and was the main reason the Pirates fell out of the playoff race at a seemingly impossible pace.
David Bednar finished with a 5.77 ERA and lost his spot as closer after back-to-back All-Star seasons in 2022-23. Colin Holderman faded down the stretch after a good start to the season. Dauri Moreta missed the year after elbow surgery and won’t be ready for the start of 2025. Some of the younger guys showed promise but were also inconsistent.
The good news is that bullpens are volatile and can be fixed quickly. Sure, the Pirates will be relying on a bounce-back season from Bednar and more consistency from some of the other relievers, but offseason acquisitions to improve the unit can be cost-effective. It won’t break to bank to make the bullpen better, which will be a priority for Ben Cherington this offseason.
But fixing the offense? That will cost more, and given the limited funds Cherington is working with, it will be a challenge to make meaningful upgrades to the lineup.
Which brings us to the biggest reason of all as to why Pirates’ players shouldn’t be so confident heading into next season. Until proven otherwise, there is no reason to believe owner Bob Nutting will green light a significant boost to player payroll. Based off of precedent, and plenty of it, the Pirates will hand out marginal free agent contracts once again.
Since Nutting took control of the organization, the largest free agent contract given by the Pirates was a three-year, $39 million deal to bring back Francisco Liriano in the 2014-15 offseason. Under Cherington, the Pirates’ largest guarantee is Aroldis Chapman’s $10.5 million last winter. No free agent has signed a multi-year contract in Pittsburgh since Daniel Hudson’s two-year deal in December 2016.
If the Pirates are serious about 2025, that will need to change. Until it does, false confidence seems like the fitting phrase to describe the mood for next year.
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