Perrotto: Pirates Have Better Idea of What Oneil Cruz Contract Might Look Like (+)
The cost of what it might take the Pittsburgh Pirates to come to an agreement with Oneil Cruz on a long-term contract extension has been the subject of plenty of conjecture.
Now, there might be a blueprint for a potential deal if the Pirates and Cruz decide to consider doing one.
The Arizona Diamondbacks signed highly touted outfield prospect Corbin Carroll to an eight-year, $111-million extension on Saturday.
Carroll is 22 and has logged 38 days of major league service time. Cruz is 24 and has logged 110 days in the big leagues. So they are not completely comparable situations but pretty darn close.
Both are on track to become eligible for salary arbitration following the 2025 season and free agency in 2028.
The prospect hype for Carroll has been even a bit stronger than it was for Cruz leading up to last season.
Carroll is ranked as the second-best prospect in baseball by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline while Baseball Prospectus has him at No. 5. Going into last season, Cruz was rated No. 12 by Baseball Prospectus, No. 14 by Baseball America and No. 26 by MLB Pipeline.
While the sample sizes are small for both players, Cruz’s representatives could make the case that a contract should be equal to or exceed the price of Carroll’s
Carroll has hit .260/.330/.500 with four home runs and two stolen bases in 32 major-league games. In 89 games with the Pirates, Oneil Cruz has a .235/.295/.456 slash line but with 18 homers and 10 steals.
Both play premium positions. However, an argument can be made that Cruz is even more valuable as a shortstop than Carroll as a center fielder.
Carroll’s contract also includes a $28-million club option for 2031 and a potential $20 million in escalators clauses for the seasons covering 2029-31. So, the deal has the potential to max out at nine years and $159 million.
The Pirates, though, would likely prefer that Cruz agree to an eight-year extension like the one catcher Keibert Ruiz signed with the Washington Nationals on Saturday. That contract has just $50 million in guarantees but two club option years.
Like Cruz, Ruiz is 24. However, Ruiz had one year and 64 days of service time, which puts him a year closer to potential arbitration and then free agency.
It seems highly unlikely Cruz would agree to a contract that light, especially with the lofty expectations he has for himself. If the Pirates did offer that, Bob Nutting might have to have batting cage conversations with Oneil Cruz such as he did with Bryan Reynolds earlier in spring training to soothe any ill feelings over possible insults.
The Pirates signed Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year, $70-million extension last April, which is the biggest contract in franchise history in terms of overall value. At the time, Hayes had one year and 175 days of service time, which is one more full year than Cruz has at the present.
Cruz almost certainly would want a deal bigger than that one.0
Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Ben Cherington has consistently said since signing Hayes that the organization would be open to extending other young players, though it would be on a case-by-case basis.
Cherington reiterated that point during a conversation I had with him Thursday.
Signing Cruz to a deal like Carroll’s would carry risk. If Cruz ends up being a flop, then it’s a lot of money to waste for a front office that is forced by ownership to make every dollar count.
If Cruz turns out to be a superstar, on the other hand, he would be under contractual control until he is 33 years old. If the terms matched Carroll’s contract, the $13,875,000 average annual value would not be too big even for the frugal Pirates.
It’s a tough decision to make for the Pirates, though, as there is both risk and rewards involved. However, they now have a better idea of what the cost of doing business with Cruz likely would be.
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