Perrotto: Oneil Cruz Has Every Right to Dream Big (+)
BRADENTON, Fla. — There is often a delicate balance between setting lofty goals and setting oneself up for failure.
Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz may be about to find that out as embarks on what should be his first full major league season.
While speaking with reporters Wednesday during the Pirates’ spring training camp, Cruz mentioned a goal of being a 40/40 player in 2023. That would mean hitting at least 40 home runs and stealing at least 40 bases.
As a point of reference, just four players in major league history have pulled off that feat. Just 33 players have had 30/30 seasons with Barry Bonds doing it twice for the Pirates in 1990 and 1992.
Bonds remains the only Pirates player in that exclusive club.
Derek Shelton was asked about Cruz’s 40/40 dream later in the day. The fourth-year manager didn’t want to put a damper on 6-foot-7 Cruz’s optimism but also provided a dose of realism.
Shelton has been around the game long enough to know 40/40 is an incredibly difficult feat, even for someone with tremendous power and speed.
“Well, I think, No. 1, we’re dealing with a confident kid,” Shelton said. “Putting actual number goals — there’s so many other factors that come into play that it’s not really fair, but the one thing that is encouraging is he’s going into the year with things on his mind that he wants to accomplish.
“To be able to accomplish those things, he has to hit some milestones. He has to control the zone better and he has to get on base if he’s going to be able to do that. Getting to the process of that is where we’ll spend our time, and then what happens, we’ll see what happens.”
Shelton is right on the money. While Cruz is supremely talented and confident, the 24-year-old is going to have to show a lot of improvement over his rookie season to reach 40/40 – or even a somewhat more realistic 30/30.
Cruz’s on-base percentage is just .295 in the relatively small sample size of 89 career games in the big leagues. The adage about not being able to steal first base holds true, even with Major League Baseball switching to bags the size of pizza boxers this season.
And the bases are literally the size of pizza boxes. I am not exaggerating. They’re weird and freakish looking. They kind of scare me.
| [bet-promo id=”2769″ ] |
Cruz’s propensity for strikeouts makes it hard for him to have a good OBP. He has whiffed 130 times in just 370 plate appearances.
Yet Oneil Cruz has shown just enough results to dream about a 40/40 season. He has 18 career homers and 10 steals, which average out to 33 and 18 over a 162-game season.
“I don’t think we want to put any number goals on anything because there’s so many other factors that come into play, but we are dealing with a kid that’s extremely talented,” Shelton said. “There’s only been four guys that have done this, so let’s not start anointing anything, and let’s focus on that process.”
The process of improving his strike zone discipline will continue for Cruz this spring. He felt he made strides in that aspect of the game in the latter part of last season.
“It all comes with experience,” Cruz said. “At the beginning of the season, I was swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. I tried to do too much. Then through the season, as the games went on, I started becoming more of a big-league player and started making adjustments, not swinging at pitches out of the strike zone as much. That gave me success at the end of the season.”
The Pittsburgh Pirates need Oneil Cruz to carry that over to 2023. He is clearly the cornerstone player of their rebuilding effort.
Can he be a 40/40 guy? Probably not at this stage of his career.
However, it is unwise to put limits on someone with Cruz’s immense talent. So, it’s perfectly OK to let him dream big.
More about:Opinion PBN+ Pirates Pirates Spring Training