Perrotto: Oneil Cruz in the 100th Percentile of Perplexing
Everyone knows Oneil Cruz has as much raw talent as any player in the major leagues.
After all, as the younger set says, the Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder has broken Statcast.
And we all know Statcast metrics mean more in today’s game than the league standings. It’s a new twist on the old phrase “it doesn’t matter if you win or lose, it’s how you play the game.”
Pardon the sarcasm.
Cruz, though, could be the most polarizing player in baseball when it comes to the divide between new school and old school.
Younger fans marvel at Cruz’s exit velocities and sprint speeds. Older fans shudder at Cruz’s mental mistakes and lack of feel for the game.
I have one foot in the old school and the other in the new school. I think today’s metrics reveal a great deal about players. I also believe it is essential that players understand the game of baseball, respect it, and play it properly.
That is why I have such a hard time evaluating Cruz.
He has the talent to be one of the top five players in the major leagues. I don’t write this lightly, but Cruz has enough tools to land him in the Hall of Fame five years after his career ends.
There is also a chance Cruz could be out of baseball within five years. He is inconsistent and appears to have no idea how to unlock his full potential.
Cruz’s supporters invariably point to his age and inexperience. I can agree with that to a point.
Missing almost the entire 2023 season because of a broken ankle indeed delayed Cruz’s development. However, that was two years ago.
Cruz isn’t a kid anymore, either, as he turns 27 on Oct. 4. He also has nearly 1,500 plate appearances in the major leagues.
Yet, Cruz is hitting .202/.304/.389 through 111 games this season after going 0 for 2 with a walk in the Pirates’ 4-1 loss to the Cardinals on Thursday in St. Louis. Since his last multi-hit game on Aug. 1, Cruz has gone 3 for 44 (.068) in 13 games.
Every hitter has ups and downs over the course of a season, but Cruz has lower peaks and more profound valleys. Someone with his talent should have an OPS better than .693.
The most perplexing aspect of Cruz’s season is that he is productive enough to dream of him becoming a superstar. He has 18 home runs and a National League-best 35 stolen bases. You don’t have to squint to see a potential 30-30 player.
However, Cruz’s approach to hitting is maddening as his 149 strikeouts in 401 at-bats this season attest. He takes pitches right down the middle of the plate and swings at pitches out of the strike zone.
To put it in Statcast terms, Cruz is in the 100th percentile of perplexing.
Cruz deserves some of the blame. He has been playing professional baseball since 2016 and should have a better grasp of hitting by now.
The Pirates deserve some of the blame, too. They can’t find a hitting coach who can get through to Cruz, which is akin to owning a high-performance sports car and never putting oil in it.
I still believe Cruz can become a great player. Yet my confidence wanes with each empty at-bat.