MLB Win Total: Play the Bucs to Skid Through September

Now what, Pirates fans? 

The future is bright, I guess. But that depends on whether Bob Nutting remembers he owns a major league ball club rather than an amusement park (PNC Park is Kennywood, and Paul Skenes is the new roller coaster attraction).

After going 1-5 in the most important homestand of the past decade, the 2024 Pirates appear on the verge of a total collapse. Can they get right and get themselves back into playoff contention?

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Buccos adjusted MLB win total at 78.5. With a record of 56-59, the Bucs must win 23 of the remaining 48 games to go over. I don’t think they will. 

By the way, FanDuel Sportsbook offers new players $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins. Create an account today, place your first bet, and get free betting money if it hits.

Here are three reasons to bet the Bucs under 78.5 wins. 

1. After the Flood

Optimism surged through the Pirates fanbase after the team acquired Bryan De La Cruz and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at the trade deadline. They weren’t the sticks we’d hoped for, but management finally did something.

Unfortunately, management tuned up a 95 Honda Civic with a rusted rear suspension. The bullpen has been brutal, and manager Derek Shelton’s options are slim.  

David Bednar will likely continue to close games after blowing two saves in a row against the San Diego Padres. Colin Holderman, who Shelton continued to trot out in high-leverage situations despite not performing, is on the 15-day DL.

Shelton could move flame-throwing lefty Aroldis Chapman to the closer spot, but that’s not a great solution. Chapman hasn’t been consistent enough to be a closer at this late in his career. 

2. Skenes Shut Down

Today, the Pirates are 4.5 games back from the final Wild Card slot. 4.5 games in early to mid-August isn’t an impossible climb, but jumping five teams might be. 

Should the Bucs continue their current skid and sit at five or six back after this week, there’s no hope. And if there’s no hope, what’s the point of pitching Skenes in September? 

Skenes is rumored to be on an inning count of about 150. Playoff contention would’ve likely altered the Pirates’ plans, but last week’s bright optimism faded. All the leaves are brown. The sky is gray. 

Look for Skenes to sit in September, accelerating the loss column to go under the current posted MLB win total. 

DraftKings Sportsbook has an excellent promotion if you want to fade the Pirates and make some cash. Sign up today and receive $150 in bonus bets immediately after placing your first $5 wager.

3. Schedule Woes

The Pirates’ August and September schedule would make playoff contention an uphill battle even if they were still in the thick of the Wild Card race. 

They have games against the Dodgers, Padres, and Yankees. They also play the Guardians, Cardinals, and Brewers. Five of the six are playoff teams, while the Cardinals sit only 1.5 games out of the last NL Wild Card slot. 

After going 1-5 against the Diamondbacks and Padres, the Pirates look ready to roll downhill toward last place in the NL Central rather than dig in and fight upward against these playoff teams.