MLB Best Bets: Pirates at Padres

The Pittsburgh Pirates continue their west coast swing in San Diego, with the first pitch at Petco Park scheduled for 9:41 p.m. ET. 

The Padres starting pitcher is Joe Musgrove, a familiar face to Pirates fans, who’s throwing for the first time since May 26. The Pirates’ projected starter is Marco Gonzalez, a bottom-of-the-rotation lefty making his eighth start this season.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Padres as -188 favorites and the total set at 8. Create a FanDuel account today and receive $150 in bonus bets after winning your initial $5 wager. 

Will the Pirates end their 1-9 skid tonight? Or will the Padres snuff out the Buccos’ dwindling playoff flame?

Here are three of my MLB best bets for tonight’s West Coast tilt. 

First Five Innings Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates +154

The Pirates skid turned into a landslide against the LA Dodgers as they were on the losing end of a series sweep. But it’s not as if Pittsburgh was unable to score runs. The Pirates notched five in two of the three games. 

The Bucs should get some runs tonight. 

Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove hasn’t pitched since late May due to a bone spur and bone bruise in his right elbow. He wasn’t pitching well before the injury. Musgrove’s 2024 ERA is 5.66 in ten starts with a 2.7 BB/9. 

San Diego will also limit Musgrove’s pitch count, making this a bullpen game for the Padres. That’s terrible news for the Buccos in the later innings, as San Diego’s pen has locked the gates since July 20th, allowing only 12 earned runs in 52 ⅔ innings as of yesterday. 

I like the Pirates’ chances of getting a lead early against a rusty Musgrove.

Play Pirates First Five Innings Moneyline Pittsburgh Pirates

Over/Under: Over 8 Runs -115

The Pirates lack of offense in 2024 has been their Achilles heel. The Bucs stayed in the Wild Card race until August due largely to excellent pitching. 

The pitching is regressing.

Rookie star Paul Skenes looked human in his last two starts, while the solid Mitch Keller couldn’t stop the Pirates’ current skid in LA. The bullpen is also taking on water, with David Bednar blowing two crucial saves in last week’s homestand against the Padres. 

Regressing pitching means one thing: Overs.

The Pirates are 7-3 to the over in the last ten games and Marco Gonzalez is unlikely to keep the San Diego bats at bay. Gonzalez has a 4.94 ERA and got tagged for five earned against the Padres last week. 

With Musgrove making his first start in over two months and Gonzalez’s recent stats, I like a lot of runs tonight and think the over is one of my MLB best bets. 

Bet over 8. 

Isiah Kiner-Falefa to Record 2+ Hits +310

Less than two weeks ago, the Pirates were in the thick of the Wild Card race and were buyers at the trade deadline. Two weeks feels like a lifetime.

But utility infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa has delivered as promised. His .288 batting average and .335 OBP give the Pirates a legitimate top-of-the-lineup stick. 

He’s recorded two hits in four of his eight games with the Pirates. I like him to get two or more tonight. 

Play IKF to record 2+ Hits.