Perrotto: What Could Pirates Get in Mitch Keller Trade?

It is becoming almost certain that the Pittsburgh Pirates will trade Mitch Keller by the July 31 deadline.

The Pirates will be sellers despite their 6-0 homestand that ended earlier this week. Sources both inside and outside the organization indicate that the Pirates are seeking to trade veteran players for younger ones.

However, there could be a positive spin on this trading deadline. General manager Ben Cherington wants to trade for hitters who are ready to move into the major league team’s lineup—no buying lottery tickets on players in the lower levels of the minor leagues.

The Pirates’ most tradeable commodity, of course, is right-hander Paul Skenes. However, Cherington has ruled out trading Skenes.

The Pirates are also reluctant, though not completely unwilling, to trade right fielder Bryan Reynolds, especially with the state of their anemic offense.

The Pirates have indicated to teams that they would at least listen to offers on center fielder Oneil Cruz, a reversal of course from earlier this season. However, position players don’t often fetch big returns at the trade deadline. The Pirates would likely receive a significantly higher return for Cruz in an offseason trade, and they would likely want a substantial return to part with him.

The Pirates have other pitchers who are generating considerable trade interest, a group that includes left-handed starter Andrew Heaney and right-handed relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana.

However, in the opinion of many baseball people I’ve talked with over the past few weeks, Keller is the trade chip most likely to get the Pirates some hitting. What makes Keller particularly attractive is that he is under contract for three more seasons beyond this one at reasonable salaries, as part of his five-year, $ 67 million contract.

The teams that have the most interest in Keller are the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, and Detroit Tigers.

The Cubs could make an intriguing offer of a one-for-one swap with rookie third baseman Matt Shaw. The 23-year-old was the Cubs’ first-round draft pick in 2023, ranked as the game’s 35th-best prospect by Baseball America coming into the season, and would not be eligible for free agency until 2030.

The Mets could also offer a major-league third baseman in 25-year-old Mark Vientos and sweeten the deal by adding two prospects in Triple-A right-hander Brandon Sproat and rookie-level shortstop Dangelo Sarmiento.

Vientos is under club control through 2029 and hit 27 home runs last season. Sproat, 24, has struggled this season but was Baseball America’s No. 61 prospect at the start of the season. The 20-year-old Sarmiento hasn’t hit yet in pro ball but was well regarded as an amateur free agent in the Dominican Republic and received a $700,000 signing bonus in 2023.

The Tigers could package outfielder Parker Meadows and Triple-A infielder Jace Jung in a potential trade. Both are under club control through 2030. Meadows is the younger brother of former Pirates outfielder and first-round draft pick Austin Meadows, while Jung is the younger brother of Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung.

The thread among all three trades is that the Pirates would receive a third baseman, though they already have a Gold Glove winner at the position.

Shaw played both middle infield positions in the minor leagues, Vientos played some first base in the big leagues, and Jung began his professional career as a second baseman. All three could also be converted into outfielders.

The Pirates could also consider trading Hayes. However, his trade value is low because of his hitting, and the Pirates wouldn’t get much more than salary relief if they traded Hayes, who has four years and $36 million remaining on his contract after this season.

Keller almost certainly will be gone by Aug. 1. It’s just a matter of where he lands and who the Pirates get back.