Inside the Numbers: Mitch Keller Has a Winning Problem, But It’s Really Not His Fault

PITTSBURGH — A pitcher’s record doesn’t mean nearly as much as it used to. Pitchers are no longer judged on their personal records, but you’ll still find them posted in every box score.

Even though a pitcher’s record doesn’t hold the same weight as it once did, it’s still alarming to see Mitch Keller fall to 1-10 following the Pirates’ 3-2 loss to the Texas Rangers at PNC Park on Saturday.

That record isn’t indicative of how Keller has pitched. Though he hasn’t been necessarily great this season, he’s been much better than that record would indicate.

Keller hasn’t gotten a win since his season debut in Miami against the Marlins on March 28.

Since then? 10 straight losses. He’s the first Pirates’ starting pitcher to drop 10 straight decisions since Jose DeLeon lost 11 in a row in 1985.

“I think it would be natural to, and trying to keep him up and keep him focused on the way he’s pitching and how well he’s pitched and how many opportunities he’s given us to win the baseball game, I’m trying to talk to him about that and keep him positive on that,” manager Don Kelly said when asked if the piling losses are weighing on Keller. “There’s some really good things with him. You cannot look at the record and let that drag you down because he’s pitched much, much better than 1-10.”

The Pirates, meanwhile, are 3-13 in games Keller started this season. Keller’s 4.02 ERA is better than league average, but he’s received the fewest runs of support of any qualified starting pitcher in Major League Baseball this season. The Pirates have scored one or zero runs while Keller was in the game in 10 of his 16 starts. 

While Keller brushed off his record following another loss on Saturday, it’s hard to ignore what’s happened dating all the way back to nearly a year ago.

It was a game against the New York Mets on July 8 of last season that Keller last won a game at PNC Park. Since then, he’s made 17 starts at home but has a record of 0-10 despite a respectable 4.15 ERA. 

Keller was an All-Star candidate last season when he entered the break at 10-5 with a 3.46 ERA. However, the right-hander scuffled down the stretch and finished 1-7 with a 5.65 ERA over his final 12 starts of 2024.

OK, that record is justified, but what the record you’re about to read next is not.

Since his last home win, Mitch Keller is 2-17 in his last 19 decisions (29 total starts). Outside of his first start of this season, Keller’s only other win over that stretch came against the Rangers in Texas last August after throwing 7.0-excellent innings of one-run ball. Of the 29 starts during this dreadful stretch, Keller’s been charged with two runs or fewer in 15 of them. He’s delivered a quality start in 16 of those outings. 

Since winning in Texas last year on Aug. 20, Keller has now lost 15 of his last 16 decisions.

The even-keeled Keller maintains that his focus is elsewhere. 

“Like I’ve said in the past, I’m not looking at wins and losses,” he said. “I’m looking at the other stats like walks, first-pitch strikes, stuff like that. Tangibles that I can control that I think make up a good starter, like am I throwing strikes? Am I feeling it up? When I get to two strikes, is the weak contact there? Are the strikeouts there? And they have been. My review of the game doesn’t change based off my win and loss record.”

It’s respectable to see Keller handle these losses as well as he has, but his record is a reflection of the problems the Pirates continue to face at the start of summer.