Level Expectations Are Key to Analyzing Pirates’ Prospects (+)
Shortstop Oneil Cruz became an internet sensation during the summer of 2021, thanks to clips of him tattooing doubles at 113 miles an hour off the bat and nailing runners at home plate with rocket throws from the outfield.
In the internet age, it’s possible to track the career of prospects from the draft (or international signing) day until the moment they hit the show. With pages of data on minor league players available with the press of a button, YouTube videos ready to show highlight-reel plays that otherwise would’ve happened in anonymity and a rumbling hype building on social media like a distant tsunami wave as big-name players climb through the minor leagues, the casual fan has a grasp of their team’s prospects like never before.
With that wealth of information comes a drawback. Expectations for young players have been turned completely upside down as every moment of their athletic careers goes under the microscope.
As the Pirates continue to rebuild their entire organization through the draft, it’s crucial to keep reasonable expectations. That’s not to say one should embrace mediocrity and blindly excuse poor play: merely that not every player is a future Hall of Famer. In the same breath, not every error a player makes means they’re destined to be DFA’d.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Take Cruz, for example, as he’s one of the most recent prospects to graduate from the Pirates’ system. He had an OPS+ of 107 and hit 17 home runs in 87 games last season, which averages out to almost 32 home runs over a 162-game campaign. He struck out 29 percent of the time, which is high, but not unexpected for a 6-foot-7 power hitter. There’s going to be swing-and-miss in his game. Cruz’s 98th-percentile sprint speed helped him beat out some ground balls, buoying his .233 average.
His offensive talent can’t be denied, but it’s going to take him time to put it all together. 2022 was only Cruz’s rookie season, and he didn’t get called up until mid-June. It can take years to become a successful major league starter: take the example of Mitch Keller, who looked awful for much of his first three seasons but is now firmly on the upswing.
Cruz’s 17 errors were tied for fifth-most in all of baseball—in just over half a full season, no less—but that comes with the territory when you play a position that fields the highest percentage of batted balls: all the players tied or ahead of him were middle infielders.
While the upside of a shortstop who can slug 30 home runs a season is hard to look past, there’s no shame if he has to move to the outfield, first base or designated hitter, especially if it helps the team win.
No Red Sox fan in their right mind ever complained about David Ortiz’s lack of defense.
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In a game broken down with words like ‘averages,’ it’s crucial to look at the bigger picture. If one wants to follow the careers of young players as they rise through the minors and graduate from the system, they shouldn’t put too much stock into knee-jerk reactions, whether good or bad.
It takes most players the better part of a decade to reach the majors: Cruz signed with the Dodgers as a 16-year-old free agent in 2015 and didn’t make his big league debut for another six years. Baseball is a game of failure, and the road to becoming an established big-league starter is long and winding.
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