MLB End of Season Odds: Playoff Favorites, ROTY Races Heat Up

The 2024 MLB regular season is quickly coming to a close. The last day on the schedule is next Sunday with the playoffs starting two days later.

Part of the playoff field is already known. The Milwaukee Brewers have already clinched the National League Central. The New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Dodgers have all locked down playoff spots.

Speaking of the Yankees, they are the fairly-heavy favorites to win the American League Pennant, according to the odds provided by FanDuel sportsbook. The Yankees possess the best record in the A.L. at 90-64, one-half game better than the Guardians.

Despite a dominant regular season and one of two teams to already punch their ticket to the playoffs, the Guardians are just above the Baltimore Orioles for the third-best odds to win the American League at +440, behind the Houston Astros.

Things in the National League are a little bit tighter at the top. As expected, the Los Angeles Dodgers (+145) are the favorites but followed closely by the Philadelphia Phillies (+210).

The San Diego Padres are third at +700, but given their deep bullpen, a solid rotation and a potent offense, the Friars could be a tough out in the playoffs come October. Don’t count them out.

ROTY Races Close

The National League Rookie of the Year race between Pittsburgh Pirates starter Paul Skenes and Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill has been the subject of much debate.

Skenes looked like the runaway favorite a couple of months ago but was overtaken by Merrill. Though Merrill is still out in front based on the odds, Skenes has narrowed the gap. The two-horse race feels like a coinflip at this point, and a case could be made for either All-Star to take home the award.

Working in Skenes’ favor is that he has reached unprecedented territory as a rookie starting pitcher after his promotion in May. But Merrill has been with the Padres for the full season and should help lead his team to a postseason berth.

A tight race also applies to the American League with less than 10 games to go in the regular season. Instead of two players in the mix like in the National League, there are three players in strong position in the A.L.

Yankees teammates Luis Gil (-155) and Austin Wells  (+320) are have the best and third-best odds, respectively. Sandwiched in between the two is Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser (+270).

Gil is first among MLB rookies with a .184 batting average against and is first among American League rookies with a 3.14 ERA.

Cowser has the most homers among American League rookies with 22 and has the edge in OPS in wake of a recent slump for Wells.

Saturday’s Top Game

The red-hot Detroit Tigers are slight underdogs against one of the top teams in the American League in the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards but FanDuel’s research page gives Detroit a 57% chance of winning.

The Tigers have made a serious push to land an open wild card spot thanks to their strong play in recent weeks. They’ve gone 7-3 over their last 10 games while the Orioles are just 4-6.

The pitching matchup is certainly in Detroit’s favor. Right-hander Reese Olson (4-8, 3.50 ERA) will be opposite rookie left-hander Cade Povich (2-9, 5.74 ERA).