Bet Paul Skenes for NL Rookie of the Year

Two weeks ago, I gave you several reasons why you should fade Pittsburgh Pirates rookie ace Paul Skenes in the NL Rookie of the Year market and bet on San Diego Padres CF Jackson Merrill. 

Well, Skenes’ odds continue to drop after yesterday’s incomprehensible loss.  

If you jumped on San Diego Padres rookie CF Jackson Merrill at +140 as I did, it might be time to consider betting Skenes to lock in a profit. DraftKings Sportsbook has Skenes to win the award at +300 currently. 

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Here are several reasons you should bet on Paul Skenes to win NL Rookie of the Year despite the Pirates’ second-half collapse. 

Skenes is the Best in the Business Right Now

Paul Skenes hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify for the lowest ERA among MLB pitchers. But he has the lowest in the game right now at 2.23. 

That ERA is lower than Chris Sale’s and Tarik Skubal’s, NL and AL Cy Young Award betting favorites. 

Skenes’ strike-out numbers further illustrate his dominance on the mound in 2024. The young Pirates hurler has 136 Ks in 109 innings pitched. Sale has 197 Ks while pitching 44.2 more innings. 

Skenes’ WHIP is currently 0.95, putting him ahead of Sale. The only MLB pitcher with a lower WHIP is Seattle Mariners pitcher, Logan Gilbert. 

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The Pirates Team Performance Doesn’t Matter

Skenes’ drop in the NL Rookie of the Year betting market is likely due to the Pirates’ collapse. In August, the Pirates have dropped 18 of 25 games.

And in Skenes’ last start, the Bucs blew a 10-3 seventh-inning lead to the Chicago Cubs, losing 14-10. 

It was a baffling affair that ultimately summed up the state of the Pirates franchise in 2024: A little bit of promise and a lot of pain. 

Losses like these move the betting markets. 

Team perception can and will sway the minds of bookmakers and bettors alike. Padres rookie Jackson Merrill is an everyday player on a playoff team. His daily performance garners more attention from all the eyes focused on playoff and pennant races.

Skenes pitches for a bottom-feeding franchise. As the Pirates fade into obscurity this September, a “Skenes day” will have less juice in the national media markets. 

The question is, will these losses change the minds of those who vote on MLB awards?

They might not.

Skenes started the 2024 MLB All-Star game as a rookie. The only other pitchers to start the Midseason Classic as a rookie are Hideo Nomo, Fernando Valenzuela, Mark Fidrych, and Dave Stenhouse. 

Bet Skenes +300 at DraftKings Sportsbook to Win NL Rookie of the Year.

The price on Skenes hasn’t been this good since May.

If you bet Merrill at plus-money a few weeks ago, you can lock in some profit by betting Paul Skenes. If you’ve waited to enter the market, now’s the time.