2025 Pirates Are an Auto-Fade

In January, I wrote that I believed the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates would win one more game than the 2024 vintage. A full season of Paul Skenes and a starting rotation that boasted a better top-three than any other NL Central team would help the cause. 

I even wrote last month that the Pirates would hit a hot streak at some point, string together some wins, and go over the then-adjusted win total of 67.5 

I’m sorry. I couldn’t handicap the chasm this year’s Pirates have fallen into, and I don’t know if there is or will be a bottom. According to FanDuel Sportsbook’s latest MLB odds, the Pirates’ win total is now 64.6 and juiced to the under (-120).

A dark shroud hangs over this year’s roster, and we must now accept that the 2025 Pittsburgh Pirates are not just bad but have a chance to be historically bad. 

Skenes for Cy Young? Not So Fast

Paul Skenes remains a +240 favorite to win the 2025 NL Cy Young. That’s far too low a number, even at this early part of the season. 

The Bucs are a cratering franchise with a 17-33 record and a 3-7 record when Skenes starts. It’s not Skenes’ fault. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in runs scored per game (2.92) this year. 

Skenes’ frustration oozes from his pores, and how could it not? His last start was a complete game 1-0 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, where the Pirates totaled six hits. Losses like these won’t help Skenes’ Cy Young chances at the end of the year. 

The pitcher with the juiciest NL Cy Young odds is the New York Mets’ Kodai Senga. The third-year starter is 4-3 with a 1.43 ERA and 47 Ks. His odds of winning the award are +3500. 

Slip-Sliding Away and Under

Pirates’ brass fired manager Derek Shelton earlier this month, throwing him under the bus for the team’s ugly start. Yes, Shelton deserved his dismissal with a 306-440 record. Yet, the 2025 Pirates lineup can barely be considered worthy of the Major Leagues.

What was Shelton to do? 

Regardless, the Bucs haven’t found anything close to a spark from new manager Don Kelly. The Bucs are 4-7 since Kelly took control, and aren’t trending in the right direction. A month has passed since the Pirates’ offense scored more than four runs in a game. 

Given the Pirates’ poor offensive output and the general malaise lingering over the team and its fanbase, a 100-loss season looks like a lock. Bet under 64.5 wins at -120. 

No Superstars, Big Problem

For the Pirates to have had any chance at a playoff spot in 2025, they needed Oneil Cruz to break out and become the power hitter we thought he’d be. 

So far, that mighty potential hasn’t shown. Cruz is currently 100-to-1 to lead the MLB in home runs. While I didn’t expect Aaron Judge-like numbers from Cruz, he’s currently at a 30 HR pace over a full season. 

30 home runs is pretty darn good, but not good enough to overcome the rest of the lineup’s offensive deficiencies. Cruz is also hitting .221. 

Perhaps I’m being a bit too hard on Cruz. He does lead MLB with 18 stolen bases and is on pace for a 30/30 season despite the abject misery surrounding him. 

Yeah, Cruz isn’t the problem, but he won’t catch Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani for the home run crown. I’d rather put money on the Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber (+700), who’s tied with Ohtani with 17 dingers.