MLB Betting
2025 MLB Win Total: The Push to 77

In less than a month, Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers and catchers report to Bradenton, FL. An old cliche about hope and spring and the eternal nature of our best emotions comes to mind, but I’ll spare you.
FanDuel’s MLB odds have the Pirates 2025 MLB win total at 76.5.
The Pirates finished the 2024 MLB Regular Season with 76 wins, so the oddsmakers think they’ll tread water in 2025. Why shouldn’t they? The Bucco offseason has been mostly quiet on the player acquisition front.
Despite the lack of change and splashy acquisitions, I think the Pirates can exceed 76.5 wins. Don’t laugh. They only have to win 77 games to win the bet.
Here are three reasons I think the Bucs exceed their 76.5 win total this year.
1. A Full Season of Skenes-a-mania
Paul Skenes made his first start for the Pirates on May 11, 2024. While Skenes didn’t get the win that day against the Chicago Cubs, he finished the season with an 11-3 record.
More importantly, the 2024 Pirates were 15-8 when Skenes took the hill. Having Skenes in 2024 on the opening-day roster would’ve likely translated to at least one more win.
Bucco manager Derek Shelton also kept the young hurler on a strict workload last season, not wanting to overtax his golden arm. Unfortunately, the 2024 Pirates bullpen posted a dreadful 4.49 ERA and blew over 30 games last year.
I expect Skenes to have an expanded pitch count in 2025, allowing him to convert his quality starts into wins.
2. They Have an Everyday First Baseman
No, I’m not thrilled by the Spencer Horwitz acquisition, but he is better than what the Bucs trotted out every day in 2024. Slightly better.
Horwitz hit 12 home runs in 97 games for the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays and hit a respectable .265. Compare that to Rowdy Tellez, who played 131 games at first base for the Pirates in 2024. Tellez hit 13 home runs with a .243 average.
While Horwitz won’t likely develop into the type of superstar slugger needed for true contention, 20 home runs over a complete season is a reasonable ask. The slightly increased first base production could help the Bucs win at least one more game in 2025.
3. Jared Jones Will Also Help the Push to 77
Jones, a rookie, showed massive promise in 2024 until a Grade 2 right lat strain kept him out of the rotation for almost two months. Jones struggled upon his return, but he did finish the 2024 season with 132 strikeouts.
A healthy and rebounding Jones will be a boon to the Pirates starting rotation featuring Skenes and Mitch Keller.
Betting Over the Bucs 2025 MLB Win Total
My belief that the Pirates exceed 76.5 wins isn’t optimism. The Pirates still exist in the MLB no man’s land of abject misery. Their NL Central rivals improved. Derek Shelton is still the skipper, and one injury could derail this 2025 MLB win total handicap.
No, I don’t think the Pirates are close to playoff contention. And yes, I’m forever disappointed in the front office and spendthrift ownership.
Do I think the 2025 Pirates can win 77 games with a full season from Paul Skenes? Yeah, I do.
Play the Pittsburgh Pirates over 76.5 wins.